IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Monmouth
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.9	#176
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.3	#24
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#193

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#169

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	17.6%	21.0%	13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	13.8	14.6

.500 or above	76.0%	85.6%	64.1%
.500 or above in Conference	79.4%	85.0%	72.6%
Conference Champion	22.7%	27.5%	16.8%
Last Place in Conference	2.6%	1.6%	3.7%

First Four	1.5%	1.1%	2.0%
First Round	16.8%	20.4%	12.4%
Second Round	1.7%	2.3%	1.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 4	3 - 6
Quad 4	12 - 4	15 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	152	Hofstra	W	78-77	55%
Dec 01, 2020	39	@ Maryland	L	68-83	9%
Dec 05, 2020	310	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	83-72	84%
Dec 11, 2020	222	@ Iona	W	78-77	50%
Dec 12, 2020	222	@ Iona	W	78-77	51%
Dec 18, 2020	195	St. Peter's	W	75-71	64%
Dec 19, 2020	195	St. Peter's	W	75-71	64%
Jan 01, 2021	149	@ Siena	L	73-78	34%
Jan 02, 2021	149	@ Siena	L	73-78	34%
Jan 08, 2021	221	Canisius	W	81-75	70%
Jan 09, 2021	221	Canisius	W	81-75	69%
Jan 15, 2021	288	Quinnipiac	W	82-73	78%
Jan 16, 2021	288	Quinnipiac	W	82-73	79%
Jan 22, 2021	251	@ Manhattan	W	71-69	55%
Jan 23, 2021	251	@ Manhattan	W	71-69	55%
Feb 05, 2021	284	Marist	W	74-65	77%
Feb 06, 2021	284	Marist	W	74-65	77%
Feb 12, 2021	259	@ Niagara	W	76-74	56%
Feb 13, 2021	259	@ Niagara	W	76-74	57%
Feb 19, 2021	268	Fairfield	W	70-62	76%
Feb 20, 2021	268	Fairfield	W	70-62	76%
Mar 05, 2021	273	@ Rider	W	81-78	58%
Mar 06, 2021	273	@ Rider	W	81-78	58%
Projected Record						14 - 9	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	2.0	4.2	5.4	5.1	3.4	1.6	0.5		22.7	1st
2nd												0.1	0.9	3.3	5.5	4.6	2.5	0.8	0.1				17.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	3.9	5.1	3.1	1.0	0.1	0.0					14.2	3rd
4th										0.1	1.0	3.8	4.1	1.8	0.4	0.0							11.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.1	3.6	1.4	0.2	0.0								9.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.6	2.4	3.1	1.0	0.1	0.0									7.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.0	0.4	1.8	2.6	1.0	0.1											6.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	1.5	1.9	0.7	0.1	0.0											4.6	8th
9th					0.1	0.3	1.1	1.3	0.5	0.1													3.4	9th
10th				0.1	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.1														2.7	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2																1.4	11th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	1.5	2.6	3.6	4.9	6.5	8.4	9.5	10.4	10.8	10.9	9.8	8.0	5.9	3.5	1.6	0.5			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
19-1	100.0%	1.6		1.6	0.0
18-2	96.4%	3.4		3.1	0.4
17-3	86.5%	5.1		4.1	1.0	0.0
16-4	67.2%	5.4		3.7	1.5	0.2
15-5	43.0%	4.2		2.1	1.7	0.5	0.0
14-6	18.2%	2.0		0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	3.8%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.4%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	22.7%	22.7		15.8	5.5	1.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.5%		79.7%	72.2%	7.5%	9.1					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0				0.1		27.0%
19-1	1.6%		60.1%	57.3%	2.9%	11.9							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0		0.6		6.7%
18-2	3.5%		49.1%	48.5%	0.5%	12.9											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.8		1.0%
17-3	5.9%		40.1%	39.9%	0.1%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	1.1	0.9	0.2		3.6		0.2%
16-4	8.0%		33.1%	33.1%		13.9												0.0	0.1	0.8	1.1	0.7	0.0	5.3
15-5	9.8%		26.5%	26.5%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1	1.0	0.1	7.2
14-6	10.9%		20.6%	20.6%		14.8														0.1	0.7	1.2	0.3	8.7
13-7	10.8%		15.4%	15.4%		15.2														0.0	0.2	0.9	0.6	9.2
12-8	10.4%		12.1%	12.1%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	9.1
11-9	9.5%		8.1%	8.1%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.6	8.7
10-10	8.4%		6.2%	6.2%		15.9																0.1	0.5	7.9
9-11	6.5%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.2	6.4
8-12	4.9%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																	0.2	4.8
7-13	3.6%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
6-14	2.6%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
5-15	1.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
4-16	0.8%																							0.8
3-17	0.5%																							0.5
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20

Total	100%		17.6%	17.5%	0.1%	14.1					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.2	3.4	4.5	4.6	3.2	82.4		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	5.3				33.3	31.4	16.2	9.5	7.6	1.0		1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	47.6%	11.8										4.8		42.9