IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+14.2	#19
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.9	#144
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+7.8	#15

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.4	#24

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.1%	2.2%	0.2%
#1 Seed	7.9%	8.3%	1.8%
Top 2 Seed	16.8%	17.7%	4.3%
Top 4 Seed	34.1%	35.5%	13.8%
Top 6 Seed	49.1%	50.8%	23.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	72.8%	74.7%	45.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	69.9%	71.9%	42.8%
Average Seed	5.3	5.3	6.6

.500 or above	81.7%	83.7%	52.8%
.500 or above in Conference	70.9%	72.4%	49.3%
Conference Champion	12.7%	13.2%	5.2%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	2.1%	6.1%

First Four	4.0%	3.9%	4.8%
First Round	71.0%	73.0%	43.1%
Second Round	52.1%	53.6%	30.1%
Sweet Sixteen	30.2%	31.3%	14.5%
Elite Eight	15.9%	16.5%	6.5%
Final Four	8.1%	8.5%	2.1%
Championship Game	4.1%	4.4%	0.7%
National Champion	2.0%	2.1%	0.3%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 5	3 - 5
Quad 1b	3 - 2	6 - 8
Quad 2	5 - 2	11 - 9
Quad 3	4 - 0	15 - 10
Quad 4	2 - 0	17 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	146	Bowling Green	W	85-69	93%
Nov 29, 2020	243	Oakland	W	82-60	98%
Dec 02, 2020	130	Ball St.	W	78-63	92%
Dec 06, 2020	111	Central Florida	W	78-65	88%
Dec 09, 2020	48	North Carolina St.	W	79-72	74%
Dec 13, 2020	62	Penn St.	W	80-72	76%
Dec 24, 2020	113	@ Nebraska	W	82-75	74%
Dec 31, 2020	39	@ Maryland	W	73-72	50%
Jan 03, 2021	80	Northwestern	W	76-66	81%
Jan 06, 2021	37	Minnesota	W	75-69	70%
Jan 09, 2021	62	@ Penn St.	W	77-75	57%
Jan 12, 2021	8	Wisconsin	W	69-67	55%
Jan 15, 2021	37	@ Minnesota	W	72-71	50%
Jan 19, 2021	39	Maryland	W	75-69	70%
Jan 22, 2021	28	@ Purdue	L	68-69	46%
Jan 30, 2021	24	Indiana	W	75-71	63%
Feb 03, 2021	80	@ Northwestern	W	73-69	64%
Feb 06, 2021	10	Michigan St.	W	76-74	55%
Feb 11, 2021	13	Illinois	W	73-71	57%
Feb 14, 2021	8	@ Wisconsin	L	66-70	35%
Feb 18, 2021	33	Rutgers	W	74-68	68%
Feb 21, 2021	17	@ Ohio St.	L	70-73	40%
Feb 27, 2021	24	@ Indiana	L	72-74	43%
Mar 04, 2021	9	Iowa	W	80-78	55%
Mar 07, 2021	10	@ Michigan St.	L	73-77	37%
Projected Record						16 - 9	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.7	2.0	3.1	3.2	2.3	1.0	0.2		12.7	1st
2nd													0.1	1.1	2.9	4.1	2.4	0.7	0.1	0.0			11.3	2nd
3rd												0.1	1.0	3.5	3.5	1.8	0.3	0.0					10.2	3rd
4th											0.0	0.7	3.2	3.9	1.7	0.3	0.0						9.8	4th
5th										0.0	0.5	2.7	3.7	1.6	0.2	0.0							8.7	5th
6th									0.0	0.2	2.1	4.1	1.9	0.2									8.5	6th
7th									0.1	1.5	4.0	1.9	0.2										7.7	7th
8th								0.1	0.7	3.0	2.7	0.4	0.0										7.0	8th
9th							0.0	0.6	2.5	2.8	0.7	0.1											6.6	9th
10th						0.0	0.4	1.7	2.3	0.9	0.0												5.4	10th
11th					0.0	0.4	1.4	1.9	0.8	0.1													4.6	11th
12th				0.1	0.4	1.0	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0													3.7	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0														2.7	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0															1.3	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.5	2.3	3.7	5.0	6.7	8.5	10.1	9.8	10.2	10.4	8.9	8.2	5.7	3.9	2.3	1.0	0.2			Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	99.9%	1.0		0.9	0.1
18-2	97.5%	2.3		2.0	0.2	0.0
17-3	82.5%	3.2		2.3	0.8	0.1
16-4	53.4%	3.1		1.6	1.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	24.8%	2.0		0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	7.6%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.2%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	12.7%	12.7		7.8	3.6	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		100.0%	55.5%	44.5%	1.1		0.2	0.0																	100.0%
19-1	1.0%		100.0%	47.7%	52.3%	1.2		0.8	0.1	0.0																100.0%
18-2	2.3%		100.0%	40.0%	60.0%	1.3		1.6	0.6	0.1																100.0%
17-3	3.9%		100.0%	31.9%	68.1%	1.6		2.1	1.5	0.3	0.1	0.0														100.0%
16-4	5.7%		100.0%	25.8%	74.2%	2.0		1.8	2.6	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0													100.0%
15-5	8.2%		100.0%	18.8%	81.2%	2.8		0.9	2.4	2.9	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0												100.0%
14-6	8.9%		100.0%	14.4%	85.6%	3.7		0.3	1.1	2.6	2.5	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
13-7	10.4%		99.8%	11.7%	88.1%	4.9		0.1	0.4	1.5	2.5	2.6	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.8%
12-8	10.2%		99.2%	5.5%	93.7%	6.1			0.1	0.5	1.0	2.1	2.5	1.9	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		99.1%
11-9	9.8%		96.3%	3.1%	93.2%	7.6			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.0				0.4		96.2%
10-10	10.1%		79.4%	2.2%	77.2%	9.3				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.4	0.9	0.2	0.1			2.1		78.9%
9-11	8.5%		42.4%	1.4%	40.9%	11.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.9	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.9		41.5%
8-12	6.7%		11.4%	0.9%	10.4%	11.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		5.9		10.5%
7-13	5.0%		1.2%	0.3%	0.9%	12.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			5.0		0.9%
6-14	3.7%		0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	14.4													0.0		0.0	0.0		3.7		0.0%
5-15	2.3%																							2.3
4-16	1.5%																							1.5
3-17	0.9%																							0.9
2-18	0.3%																							0.3
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		72.8%	9.6%	63.2%	5.3		7.9	9.0	9.0	8.3	7.9	7.1	5.8	4.7	3.4	3.0	2.9	2.9	0.8	0.2	0.0		27.2		69.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	95.1	4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0