Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#39
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#30
Pace65.9#269
Improvement-3.8#332

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#37
First Shot+3.5#80
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#30
Layup/Dunks+3.3#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#295
Freethrows+2.0#57
Improvement-0.8#229

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#54
First Shot+2.2#96
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#27
Layups/Dunks+3.4#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#269
Freethrows+1.2#110
Improvement-3.1#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 7.5% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 16.7% 21.6% 8.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.3% 79.2% 60.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.3% 77.5% 58.3%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 8.9
.500 or above 95.4% 97.9% 91.0%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 74.5% 47.3%
Conference Champion 6.3% 8.5% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four8.6% 7.8% 10.0%
First Round68.2% 75.6% 55.3%
Second Round35.4% 41.0% 25.7%
Sweet Sixteen12.8% 15.0% 9.0%
Elite Eight4.6% 5.6% 2.9%
Final Four1.3% 1.8% 0.4%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 25 - 39 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 42 - 016 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 238   Evansville W 79-44 95%     1 - 0 +28.2 +9.8 +21.8
  Nov 27, 2020 40   Seton Hall W 71-70 57%     2 - 0 +10.7 +0.4 +10.3
  Nov 29, 2020 258   Prairie View W 86-64 95%     3 - 0 +14.1 +24.5 -7.3
  Dec 01, 2020 85   Western Kentucky W 75-54 74%     4 - 0 +25.7 +4.2 +21.6
  Dec 19, 2020 11   @ Wisconsin L 48-85 26%     4 - 1 -18.6 -11.4 -10.1
  Dec 22, 2020 59   @ Pittsburgh W 64-54 50%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +21.6 +4.9 +17.7
  Dec 26, 2020 61   Kentucky W 62-59 64%     6 - 1 +10.9 +1.5 +9.6
  Jan 02, 2021 106   @ Boston College W 76-64 69%     7 - 1 2 - 0 +18.3 +4.5 +13.7
  Jan 06, 2021 43   Virginia Tech W 73-71 59%     8 - 1 3 - 0 +11.3 +8.0 +3.4
  Jan 13, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 77-65 69%     9 - 1 4 - 0 +18.5 +9.5 +9.5
  Jan 16, 2021 93   @ Miami (FL) L 72-78 65%     9 - 2 4 - 1 +1.6 +5.6 -4.1
  Jan 18, 2021 15   Florida St. L 65-78 42%     9 - 3 4 - 2 +0.7 +0.2 -0.3
  Jan 23, 2021 52   Duke W 74-71 63%    
  Jan 30, 2021 106   Boston College W 77-68 84%    
  Feb 02, 2021 47   @ Syracuse L 72-73 42%    
  Feb 06, 2021 8   @ Virginia L 57-65 22%    
  Feb 10, 2021 59   Pittsburgh W 71-67 69%    
  Feb 13, 2021 43   @ Virginia Tech L 66-67 39%    
  Feb 17, 2021 47   Syracuse W 73-71 63%    
  Feb 20, 2021 34   @ North Carolina L 70-72 38%    
  Feb 23, 2021 81   Notre Dame W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 27, 2021 52   @ Duke L 72-73 44%    
  Mar 02, 2021 54   @ Clemson L 65-66 44%    
  Mar 06, 2021 8   Virginia L 59-63 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.3 0.7 0.2 6.3 1st
2nd 0.5 4.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.7 7.2 1.6 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 3.7 8.1 2.4 0.2 14.4 4th
5th 0.9 7.5 4.2 0.4 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 4.0 5.9 0.6 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 1.2 6.3 1.8 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.1 3.8 0.3 7.4 8th
9th 1.4 4.5 1.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 1.9 0.1 4.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.2 2.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 6.0 10.9 16.0 19.4 17.2 15.4 7.9 3.6 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-5 90.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 63.7% 2.3    1.4 0.7 0.1 0.1
13-7 31.0% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-8 3.7% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 3.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.6% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 4.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 7.9% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 15.4% 98.5% 11.5% 87.0% 7.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.3%
11-9 17.2% 94.6% 7.2% 87.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.9 4.3 4.0 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.9 94.2%
10-10 19.4% 84.5% 3.4% 81.1% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 1.4 0.2 3.0 83.9%
9-11 16.0% 56.6% 2.7% 54.0% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 55.4%
8-12 10.9% 23.8% 2.1% 21.7% 11.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.3 22.2%
7-13 6.0% 3.8% 1.3% 2.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.8 2.6%
6-14 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 1.8 0.1%
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.3% 6.6% 65.7% 8.3 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.2 9.0 12.2 10.9 8.3 7.8 6.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 27.7 70.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 50.6 49.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 2.6 97.4
Lose Out 0.0%