Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#99
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#134
Pace77.5#33
Improvement+0.3#154

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#81
First Shot+4.9#53
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#230
Layup/Dunks-1.8#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#61
Freethrows+4.0#9
Improvement-2.5#319

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#143
First Shot+1.8#116
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#228
Layups/Dunks-5.0#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#13
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+2.8#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 8.5% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.7 11.3 12.5
.500 or above 80.7% 91.5% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.9% 74.0% 42.3%
Conference Champion 9.5% 17.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
First Round5.7% 8.0% 3.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.9% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 44 - 111 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 11, 2020 140   Northeastern W 94-79 70%     1 - 0 +14.8 +15.6 -2.0
  Dec 13, 2020 140   @ Northeastern L 75-78 56%     1 - 1 +0.5 -1.3 +2.1
  Dec 16, 2020 173   @ La Salle W 85-66 65%     2 - 1 1 - 0 +20.1 +12.7 +7.2
  Dec 21, 2020 172   Bryant L 88-93 77%     2 - 2 -7.5 -0.7 -6.1
  Dec 30, 2020 144   George Mason L 92-93 2OT 71%     2 - 3 1 - 1 -1.7 -1.6 +0.1
  Jan 09, 2021 173   La Salle W 83-67 77%     3 - 3 2 - 1 +13.4 +4.6 +7.8
  Jan 13, 2021 68   Rhode Island W 80-78 OT 45%     4 - 3 3 - 1 +8.4 -1.3 +9.4
  Jan 17, 2021 278   @ Fordham W 65-46 84%     5 - 3 4 - 1 +13.6 -0.2 +15.1
  Jan 24, 2021 69   Davidson L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 30, 2021 144   @ George Mason W 73-71 53%    
  Feb 03, 2021 278   Fordham W 72-58 92%    
  Feb 06, 2021 68   @ Rhode Island L 75-80 28%    
  Feb 09, 2021 88   Dayton W 73-72 57%    
  Feb 14, 2021 58   St. Bonaventure L 70-73 44%    
  Feb 20, 2021 127   @ Duquesne W 74-73 48%    
  Feb 24, 2021 203   @ Saint Joseph's W 86-80 68%    
  Mar 03, 2021 61   Richmond L 79-82 44%    
Projected Record 10 - 7 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 4.3 3.7 1.0 9.5 1st
2nd 0.2 4.7 5.6 0.7 11.2 2nd
3rd 1.6 7.8 1.2 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 6.9 4.6 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 1.5 9.5 0.7 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 6.0 4.2 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 8.2 0.6 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 4.3 4.3 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 1.2 5.2 0.6 7.0 9th
10th 0.3 2.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.2 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.5 13.4 20.7 23.0 18.4 11.1 4.5 1.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
12-6 83.4% 3.7    2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 38.5% 4.3    0.6 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1
10-8 3.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 3.7 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.0% 54.1% 19.9% 34.2% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 42.7%
12-6 4.5% 25.4% 15.3% 10.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 12.0%
11-7 11.1% 12.3% 11.1% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.7 1.4%
10-8 18.4% 7.4% 7.1% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 17.0 0.3%
9-9 23.0% 4.6% 4.6% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 22.0
8-10 20.7% 1.5% 1.5% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 20.4
7-11 13.4% 0.9% 0.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.3
6-12 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 94.0 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.9 20.5 25.6 20.5 20.5 7.7 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 52.6% 9.7 7.9 13.2 13.2 18.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 41.4% 10.1 12.1 13.8 15.5