Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#144
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#107
Pace66.6#258
Improvement+0.8#123

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#202
First Shot+1.6#140
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#308
Layup/Dunks-0.7#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#24
Freethrows-1.5#274
Improvement+0.0#175

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#106
First Shot+0.6#158
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#52
Layups/Dunks-5.8#324
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#26
Freethrows+2.1#53
Improvement+0.8#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 29.8% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 93.1% 96.0% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 99.1%
Conference Champion 92.8% 94.9% 86.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 2.0%
First Round27.5% 29.7% 21.0%
Second Round1.8% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 37 - 47 - 8
Quad 49 - 216 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 11, 2020 101   @ Massachusetts L 79-94 31%     0 - 1 -8.4 +1.3 -8.4
  Dec 13, 2020 101   Massachusetts W 78-75 44%     1 - 1 +6.0 -2.9 +8.5
  Dec 16, 2020 47   @ Syracuse L 56-62 14%     1 - 2 +6.8 -11.5 +18.1
  Dec 20, 2020 157   @ Old Dominion L 62-66 47%     1 - 3 -1.9 -2.2 +0.0
  Dec 22, 2020 95   @ Georgia L 58-76 28%     1 - 4 -10.7 -9.8 -1.4
  Dec 29, 2020 17   @ West Virginia L 51-73 8%     1 - 5 -5.3 -12.8 +6.9
  Jan 02, 2021 245   Elon W 75-52 79%     2 - 5 1 - 0 +15.9 +1.2 +15.5
  Jan 03, 2021 245   Elon W 66-58 79%     3 - 5 2 - 0 +0.9 -10.1 +11.1
  Jan 07, 2021 169   @ Hofstra W 81-78 OT 51%     4 - 5 3 - 0 +4.0 -1.4 +5.0
  Jan 09, 2021 169   Hofstra W 67-56 65%     5 - 5 4 - 0 +8.4 -1.4 +10.8
  Jan 16, 2021 201   @ College of Charleston W 67-62 60%     6 - 5 5 - 0 +3.9 -2.1 +6.4
  Jan 17, 2021 201   @ College of Charleston W 68-66 60%     7 - 5 6 - 0 +0.9 -0.7 +1.7
  Jan 23, 2021 210   James Madison W 76-70 75%    
  Jan 24, 2021 210   James Madison W 76-70 75%    
  Jan 30, 2021 167   @ Drexel W 66-65 46%    
  Jan 31, 2021 167   @ Drexel W 66-65 46%    
  Feb 06, 2021 226   Delaware W 69-62 78%    
  Feb 07, 2021 226   Delaware W 69-62 79%    
  Feb 13, 2021 220   @ Towson W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 14, 2021 220   @ Towson W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 20, 2021 203   UNC Wilmington W 71-65 74%    
  Feb 21, 2021 203   UNC Wilmington W 71-65 75%    
  Feb 27, 2021 259   @ William & Mary W 70-64 65%    
  Feb 28, 2021 259   @ William & Mary W 70-64 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.7 9.4 17.2 19.1 19.9 13.2 6.2 1.8 92.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.7 10.5 17.6 19.3 19.9 13.2 6.2 1.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 6.2    6.2
16-2 100.0% 13.2    13.2
15-3 100.0% 19.9    19.8 0.2
14-4 99.0% 19.1    18.4 0.7
13-5 97.8% 17.2    15.7 1.5 0.0
12-6 89.2% 9.4    7.5 1.8 0.1
11-7 69.6% 4.7    2.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
10-8 36.5% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3
9-9 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
Total 92.8% 92.8 85.6 6.4 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 51.1% 51.1% 11.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
17-1 6.2% 50.1% 50.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.0 3.1
16-2 13.2% 36.8% 36.8% 13.8 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.9 0.0 8.4
15-3 19.9% 28.2% 28.2% 14.1 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.6 0.0 14.3
14-4 19.3% 26.9% 26.9% 14.6 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.3 14.1
13-5 17.6% 21.9% 21.9% 15.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.8 13.7
12-6 10.5% 22.1% 22.1% 15.4 0.1 1.3 0.9 8.2
11-7 6.7% 18.3% 18.3% 15.6 0.5 0.7 5.5
10-8 3.2% 13.4% 13.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 2.7
9-9 1.2% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.2 1.0
8-10 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 4.6 9.5 9.1 3.3 72.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 11.6 16.5 0.1 20.7 33.4 29.0 0.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%