Montana
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#236
Pace65.7#272
Improvement-2.4#293

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#220
First Shot-3.0#262
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks-4.8#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#303
Freethrows+2.2#43
Improvement+1.5#75

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#127
First Shot+1.8#119
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#175
Layups/Dunks-1.6#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#74
Freethrows+1.7#69
Improvement-3.9#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 14.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 50.3% 61.0% 30.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.4% 79.3% 50.6%
Conference Champion 11.9% 16.8% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.5% 5.0% 0.8%
First Round9.3% 13.3% 1.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 47 - 511 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 22   @ USC L 62-76 8%     0 - 1 +1.3 -2.5 +3.7
  Dec 03, 2020 193   @ Southern Utah L 63-64 52%     0 - 2 0 - 1 -1.7 -8.0 +6.3
  Dec 05, 2020 193   @ Southern Utah L 74-75 52%     0 - 3 0 - 2 -1.7 -1.7 +0.0
  Dec 08, 2020 96   @ Georgia L 50-63 24%     0 - 4 -5.8 -22.2 +16.8
  Dec 16, 2020 127   @ Washington W 66-58 32%     1 - 4 +12.5 -6.8 +19.2
  Dec 22, 2020 28   @ Arizona L 64-70 9%     1 - 5 +8.5 -1.9 +10.2
  Jan 02, 2021 204   Northern Colorado L 62-64 67%     1 - 6 0 - 3 -6.7 -7.6 +0.7
  Jan 04, 2021 204   Northern Colorado W 56-54 67%     2 - 6 1 - 3 -2.7 -15.6 +13.0
  Jan 14, 2021 301   Northern Arizona W 67-56 83%     3 - 6 2 - 3 +0.5 +1.1 +1.8
  Jan 16, 2021 301   Northern Arizona L 58-62 83%     3 - 7 2 - 4 -14.5 -13.1 -2.1
  Jan 21, 2021 217   @ Sacramento St. W 78-66 57%     4 - 7 3 - 4 +9.8 +12.3 -1.2
  Jan 23, 2021 217   @ Sacramento St. L 83-89 2OT 57%     4 - 8 3 - 5 -8.2 +0.0 -7.6
  Jan 28, 2021 182   Montana St. W 65-62 66%    
  Jan 30, 2021 182   @ Montana St. L 63-64 43%    
  Feb 04, 2021 258   @ Portland St. W 70-66 61%    
  Feb 06, 2021 258   @ Portland St. W 70-66 60%    
  Feb 11, 2021 155   Weber St. W 70-69 58%    
  Feb 13, 2021 155   Weber St. W 70-69 58%    
  Feb 18, 2021 137   @ Eastern Washington L 71-75 31%    
  Feb 20, 2021 137   Eastern Washington L 72-73 53%    
  Feb 25, 2021 280   @ Idaho St. W 66-61 64%    
  Feb 27, 2021 280   @ Idaho St. W 66-61 64%    
  Mar 04, 2021 338   Idaho W 75-60 93%    
  Mar 06, 2021 338   Idaho W 75-60 93%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.8 4.7 3.3 0.8 11.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.8 7.1 4.1 0.7 0.0 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 9.2 5.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 6.6 6.4 0.6 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 7.8 1.1 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.5 2.7 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.6 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.1 0.6 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.6 9.1 14.7 19.1 19.7 15.9 9.8 4.1 0.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 96.3% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 81.6% 3.3    2.2 1.0 0.1
13-7 48.6% 4.7    1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1
12-8 17.7% 2.8    0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
11-9 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.9% 96.3% 96.3% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.1% 80.0% 80.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.8
13-7 9.8% 43.7% 43.7% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.4 5.5
12-8 15.9% 12.8% 12.8% 15.9 0.2 1.9 13.8
11-9 19.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.7
10-10 19.1% 19.1
9-11 14.7% 14.7
8-12 9.1% 9.1
7-13 4.6% 4.6
6-14 1.7% 1.7
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.6 2.9 6.8 89.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 96.3% 14.4 5.7 47.1 40.3 3.1