Arizona
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#28
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#47
Pace70.8#154
Improvement+1.5#84

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#16
First Shot+5.8#39
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#47
Layup/Dunks+0.7#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#225
Freethrows+3.9#12
Improvement+2.4#35

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#68
First Shot+1.0#140
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#17
Layups/Dunks+2.0#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#162
Freethrows+0.5#157
Improvement-0.9#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.9% 8.5% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 17.7% 23.3% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.7% 82.5% 66.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.9% 80.0% 63.3%
Average Seed 8.3 7.9 9.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 96.5% 81.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.7% 4.9% 9.2%
First Round72.3% 79.9% 61.3%
Second Round40.3% 46.6% 31.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.3% 18.5% 10.7%
Elite Eight6.1% 7.5% 4.0%
Final Four2.3% 2.8% 1.5%
Championship Game0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 59.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 23 - 5
Quad 23 - 25 - 7
Quad 37 - 112 - 8
Quad 47 - 019 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 305   Grambling St. W 74-55 97%     1 - 0 +8.2 -5.7 +12.7
  Dec 05, 2020 129   Eastern Washington W 70-67 86%     2 - 0 +3.9 -7.7 +11.4
  Dec 07, 2020 296   Northern Arizona W 96-53 97%     3 - 0 +33.0 +17.1 +17.1
  Dec 09, 2020 149   Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-60 89%     4 - 0 +24.2 +19.1 +6.8
  Dec 12, 2020 161   UTEP W 69-61 90%     5 - 0 +6.5 -2.9 +9.6
  Dec 19, 2020 52   @ Stanford L 75-78 52%     5 - 1 0 - 1 +9.1 +11.1 -2.0
  Dec 22, 2020 164   Montana W 70-64 91%     6 - 1 +4.0 +1.4 +2.8
  Dec 28, 2020 15   Colorado W 88-74 45%     7 - 1 1 - 1 +27.8 +25.6 +2.7
  Dec 31, 2020 141   @ Washington W 80-53 81%     8 - 1 2 - 1 +30.2 +7.6 +22.1
  Jan 02, 2021 127   @ Washington St. W 86-82 2OT 77%     9 - 1 3 - 1 +8.8 +2.7 +5.3
  Jan 07, 2021 20   USC L 73-87 50%     9 - 2 3 - 2 -1.3 +1.6 -1.9
  Jan 09, 2021 25   UCLA L 76-81 54%     9 - 3 3 - 3 +6.6 +11.4 -5.1
  Jan 14, 2021 153   @ Oregon St. W 98-64 83%     10 - 3 4 - 3 +36.3 +22.5 +13.4
  Jan 21, 2021 78   @ Arizona St. W 81-77 59%    
  Jan 28, 2021 52   Stanford W 75-71 68%    
  Jan 30, 2021 136   California W 77-65 90%    
  Feb 04, 2021 75   @ Utah W 74-70 59%    
  Feb 06, 2021 15   @ Colorado L 70-75 30%    
  Feb 11, 2021 153   Oregon St. W 80-66 92%    
  Feb 13, 2021 21   Oregon L 75-76 55%    
  Feb 18, 2021 25   @ UCLA L 72-74 36%    
  Feb 20, 2021 20   @ USC L 72-76 32%    
  Feb 25, 2021 127   Washington St. W 76-65 87%    
  Feb 27, 2021 141   Washington W 81-68 90%    
  Mar 07, 2021 78   Arizona St. W 83-76 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 7 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 1st
2nd 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.3 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.9 1.7 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 9.6 10.4 4.2 0.4 27.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.2 10.2 11.2 4.1 0.3 30.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.8 7.2 6.9 2.4 0.3 21.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 0.6 2.8 6.2 12.9 19.6 23.8 18.3 10.9 4.1 0.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 42.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
15-5 7.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
14-6 1.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 51.5% 48.5% 2.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 4.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.9% 99.1% 19.7% 79.4% 5.9 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.8%
13-7 18.3% 97.2% 12.8% 84.4% 7.6 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.5 3.6 4.0 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.5 96.8%
12-8 23.8% 90.0% 10.5% 79.5% 9.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.4 4.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 2.4 88.8%
11-9 19.6% 70.9% 6.6% 64.2% 10.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.5 4.1 2.3 0.2 5.7 68.8%
10-10 12.9% 44.9% 4.1% 40.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.1 42.5%
9-11 6.2% 17.6% 2.9% 14.7% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 5.1 15.2%
8-12 2.8% 7.8% 5.0% 2.8% 11.5 0.1 0.1 2.6 3.0%
7-13 0.6% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.2% 11.3% 11.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 75.7% 10.5% 65.2% 8.3 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.2 6.6 8.6 10.1 11.7 11.2 10.3 5.3 0.7 0.1 24.3 72.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.5 52.7 47.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.7 50.4 33.1 16.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 50.0 37.3 12.7