BYU
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#34
Expected Predictive Rating+16.2#19
Pace71.6#133
Improvement+2.1#64

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#49
First Shot+4.1#69
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#71
Layup/Dunks+1.3#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#33
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#141
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement+2.3#40

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#40
First Shot+5.6#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#173
Layups/Dunks+7.8#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#97
Freethrows+0.7#150
Improvement-0.2#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.1% 8.2% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 21.5% 21.7% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.5% 88.9% 70.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.5% 87.8% 67.0%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 9.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.2% 91.6%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 5.9%
First Round86.4% 86.7% 67.8%
Second Round43.8% 44.1% 25.1%
Sweet Sixteen14.4% 14.5% 7.2%
Elite Eight5.4% 5.5% 2.4%
Final Four1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 13 - 4
Quad 24 - 16 - 5
Quad 37 - 113 - 6
Quad 48 - 021 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 300   New Orleans W 86-61 97%     1 - 0 +14.5 +0.3 +12.4
  Nov 28, 2020 237   Utah Valley W 82-60 95%     2 - 0 +15.4 +0.7 +13.1
  Dec 01, 2020 20   USC L 53-79 39%     2 - 1 -11.6 -13.3 +2.0
  Dec 02, 2020 82   St. John's W 74-68 68%     3 - 1 +12.9 -1.7 +14.2
  Dec 05, 2020 44   @ Utah St. W 67-64 45%     4 - 1 +15.8 +1.3 +14.4
  Dec 09, 2020 40   Boise St. L 70-74 58%     4 - 2 +5.6 -0.1 +5.8
  Dec 12, 2020 75   Utah W 82-64 72%     5 - 2 +23.5 +10.8 +12.5
  Dec 18, 2020 47   @ San Diego St. W 72-62 46%     6 - 2 +22.8 +12.3 +11.2
  Dec 21, 2020 250   Texas Southern W 87-71 95%     7 - 2 +8.7 +2.9 +4.6
  Dec 23, 2020 173   Weber St. W 87-79 88%     8 - 2 +7.0 +7.9 -1.4
  Jan 07, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 69-86 10%     8 - 3 0 - 1 +8.6 +2.1 +7.2
  Jan 14, 2021 85   @ St. Mary's W 62-52 62%     9 - 3 1 - 1 +18.4 +4.6 +15.3
  Jan 16, 2021 88   @ San Francisco W 72-63 63%     10 - 3 2 - 1 +17.1 +8.3 +9.4
  Jan 21, 2021 287   Portland W 85-64 98%    
  Jan 23, 2021 147   Pepperdine W 82-70 90%    
  Jan 27, 2021 147   @ Pepperdine W 80-71 76%    
  Jan 30, 2021 88   San Francisco W 75-68 78%    
  Feb 02, 2021 214   @ San Diego W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 04, 2021 287   @ Portland W 84-66 93%    
  Feb 11, 2021 85   St. Mary's W 69-62 76%    
  Feb 13, 2021 214   San Diego W 80-63 95%    
  Feb 18, 2021 115   @ Pacific W 69-63 65%    
  Feb 20, 2021 126   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-66 68%    
  Feb 25, 2021 148   Santa Clara W 77-65 89%    
  Feb 27, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 76-87 19%    
Projected Record 19 - 6 11 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.6 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 10.7 22.6 27.1 16.4 78.8 2nd
3rd 0.7 3.5 4.7 1.6 0.2 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 2.8 4th
5th 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 6.9 15.7 24.2 27.5 18.6 3.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 3.6    0.9 2.8
13-3 11.8% 2.2    0.4 1.8
12-4 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 1.3 4.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 3.6% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 3.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 100.0%
13-3 18.6% 99.6% 14.3% 85.3% 5.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 3.9 4.1 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.5%
12-4 27.5% 98.1% 9.5% 88.6% 7.9 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.1 6.9 6.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.5 97.9%
11-5 24.2% 91.5% 6.9% 84.7% 9.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.8 7.1 5.9 3.0 0.6 2.1 90.9%
10-6 15.7% 77.8% 5.4% 72.4% 10.3 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 3.5 76.6%
9-7 6.9% 59.5% 3.9% 55.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.1 2.8 57.8%
8-8 2.4% 32.5% 1.6% 30.8% 11.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 31.4%
7-9 0.8% 15.3% 2.5% 12.9% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 13.2%
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 88.5% 8.7% 79.8% 8.1 0.5 0.9 2.3 4.4 5.8 7.6 9.9 12.8 16.5 14.4 9.5 3.7 0.2 11.5 87.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.8 48.1 26.1 25.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 100.0% 3.5 5.3 17.7 29.1 28.5 14.1 1.7 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 3.7 4.6 4.4 39.3 30.1 12.7 8.8