Pepperdine
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#148
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#211
Pace74.6#61
Improvement-3.0#313

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#123
First Shot+2.4#111
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#199
Layup/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#248
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement-3.5#338

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#190
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#285
Layups/Dunks+0.0#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#136
Freethrows+0.6#146
Improvement+0.5#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 15.5
.500 or above 10.2% 16.4% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 27.2% 39.2% 15.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 2.2% 9.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 31 - 8
Quad 33 - 44 - 12
Quad 44 - 29 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 114   UC Irvine W 86-72 40%     1 - 0 +17.8 +15.8 +2.0
  Nov 27, 2020 25   UCLA L 98-107 3OT 13%     1 - 1 +4.3 +1.4 +5.4
  Dec 06, 2020 44   @ San Diego St. L 60-65 14%     1 - 2 +7.9 -4.1 +11.9
  Dec 09, 2020 136   California W 74-62 54%     2 - 2 +12.2 +4.2 +8.6
  Dec 12, 2020 266   Cal St. Northridge L 84-89 81%     2 - 3 -13.2 -2.2 -10.6
  Dec 19, 2020 125   UC Santa Barbara L 63-75 50%     2 - 4 -10.7 -10.8 +0.2
  Dec 23, 2020 150   Cal St. Bakersfield L 51-79 58%     2 - 5 -28.8 -14.7 -17.4
  Jan 14, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 70-95 2%     2 - 6 0 - 1 +0.7 -2.1 +5.7
  Jan 16, 2021 287   Portland W 80-65 84%     3 - 6 1 - 1 +5.5 -7.0 +10.4
  Jan 21, 2021 113   Pacific L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 23, 2021 37   @ BYU L 70-82 11%    
  Jan 27, 2021 37   BYU L 71-80 24%    
  Jan 30, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 74-95 3%    
  Feb 04, 2021 204   San Diego W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 06, 2021 88   San Francisco L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 09, 2021 88   @ San Francisco L 71-78 23%    
  Feb 11, 2021 132   @ Loyola Marymount L 70-73 35%    
  Feb 13, 2021 84   St. Mary's L 66-70 41%    
  Feb 18, 2021 287   @ Portland W 81-74 70%    
  Feb 20, 2021 149   @ Santa Clara L 73-75 40%    
  Feb 25, 2021 132   Loyola Marymount W 72-71 56%    
  Feb 27, 2021 204   @ San Diego W 75-73 54%    
Projected Record 8 - 14 6 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 5.4 2.4 0.6 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 7.2 2.6 0.3 12.6 4th
5th 1.4 8.1 3.7 0.1 13.4 5th
6th 1.4 7.4 6.0 0.2 15.1 6th
7th 0.9 7.0 7.8 0.8 16.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 7.2 7.3 1.5 17.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.1 2.4 10th
Total 0.7 1.7 6.6 11.7 16.5 18.1 17.4 13.2 8.5 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0%
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.4% 10.1% 10.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.1%
11-5 1.4% 2.7% 2.7% 13.0 0.0 1.4
10-6 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
9-7 8.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 8.5
8-8 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 13.2
7-9 17.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 17.4
6-10 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.1
5-11 16.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.5
4-12 11.7% 11.7
3-13 6.6% 6.6
2-14 1.7% 1.7
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%