Gonzaga
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.9#1
Expected Predictive Rating+28.3#1
Pace81.1#10
Improvement-0.1#181

Offense
Total Offense+16.0#2
First Shot+13.5#3
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#49
Layup/Dunks+18.9#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#247
Freethrows+1.6#79
Improvement-0.6#216

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#11
First Shot+3.2#71
After Offensive Rebounds+4.7#3
Layups/Dunks+1.3#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#106
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement+0.5#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 24.5% 24.8% 6.5%
#1 Seed 74.8% 75.2% 53.3%
Top 2 Seed 97.8% 98.0% 88.9%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.3 1.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.6% 99.6% 97.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.9% 99.0% 95.6%
Sweet Sixteen87.0% 87.2% 77.7%
Elite Eight71.4% 71.7% 53.4%
Final Four54.5% 54.9% 33.2%
Championship Game39.0% 39.3% 22.2%
National Champion25.7% 25.9% 11.3%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 03 - 0
Quad 1b3 - 06 - 0
Quad 26 - 012 - 1
Quad 37 - 019 - 1
Quad 49 - 027 - 1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 14   Kansas W 102-90 79%     1 - 0 +27.5 +21.8 +4.0
  Nov 27, 2020 64   Auburn W 90-67 91%     2 - 0 +31.7 +14.6 +15.4
  Dec 02, 2020 17   West Virginia W 87-82 80%     3 - 0 +19.9 +9.0 +10.1
  Dec 19, 2020 3   Iowa W 99-88 65%     4 - 0 +31.0 +12.6 +16.4
  Dec 21, 2020 318   Northwestern St. W 95-57 99.7%    5 - 0 +25.2 +14.6 +10.4
  Dec 22, 2020 318   Northwestern St. W 95-78 99.7%    6 - 0 +4.2 +4.9 -2.5
  Dec 26, 2020 8   Virginia W 98-75 73%     7 - 0 +40.3 +35.2 +5.6
  Dec 28, 2020 297   Northern Arizona W 88-58 99.5%    8 - 0 +19.9 +8.7 +11.9
  Dec 29, 2020 338   Dixie St. W 112-67 99.8%    9 - 0 +29.4 +21.1 +2.1
  Jan 02, 2021 88   San Francisco W 85-62 95%     10 - 0 1 - 0 +27.6 +11.1 +15.4
  Jan 07, 2021 37   BYU W 86-69 90%     11 - 0 2 - 0 +26.9 +14.3 +11.8
  Jan 09, 2021 287   @ Portland W 116-88 99%     12 - 0 3 - 0 +22.1 +28.6 -9.6
  Jan 14, 2021 148   Pepperdine W 95-70 98%     13 - 0 4 - 0 +24.3 +9.5 +11.9
  Jan 16, 2021 84   @ St. Mary's W 73-59 92%     14 - 0 5 - 0 +22.4 +8.8 +14.2
  Jan 23, 2021 113   Pacific W 85-63 98%    
  Jan 28, 2021 204   @ San Diego W 93-68 99%    
  Jan 30, 2021 148   @ Pepperdine W 95-74 97%    
  Feb 04, 2021 132   Loyola Marymount W 89-66 99%    
  Feb 06, 2021 149   Santa Clara W 92-67 99%    
  Feb 11, 2021 149   @ Santa Clara W 90-69 97%    
  Feb 13, 2021 88   @ San Francisco W 88-72 91%    
  Feb 18, 2021 84   St. Mary's W 82-63 97%    
  Feb 20, 2021 204   San Diego W 95-66 99.7%   
  Feb 25, 2021 113   @ Pacific W 83-65 94%    
  Feb 27, 2021 37   @ BYU W 87-77 80%    
Projected Record 24 - 1 15 - 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.9 7.5 31.1 60.0 99.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 7.5 31.1 60.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 60.0    60.0
15-1 100.0% 31.1    31.1
14-2 100.0% 7.5    6.6 0.9
13-3 79.5% 0.9    0.7 0.2
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 99.6% 99.6 98.5 1.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 60.0% 100.0% 88.0% 12.0% 1.2 50.0 9.8 0.2 100.0%
15-1 31.1% 100.0% 85.7% 14.3% 1.3 21.8 9.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-2 7.5% 100.0% 79.3% 20.7% 1.8 2.8 3.6 0.8 0.2 100.0%
13-3 1.1% 100.0% 82.2% 17.8% 2.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-4 0.2% 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 86.5% 13.5% 1.3 74.8 23.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 52.8% 100.0% 1.2 83.9 15.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4% 100.0% 1.2 82.4 17.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.2 24.8