Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#240
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#184
Pace69.7#187
Improvement+3.0#33

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#235
First Shot-2.2#236
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks-4.6#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#30
Freethrows-1.4#269
Improvement+0.7#111

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#235
First Shot-4.5#306
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#45
Layups/Dunks-3.6#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#139
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement+2.4#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 12.3% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 45.1% 65.6% 32.9%
.500 or above in Conference 51.4% 72.6% 38.8%
Conference Champion 5.8% 12.2% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.7% 7.3% 6.4%
First Round6.1% 8.7% 4.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 33 - 6
Quad 47 - 49 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 04, 2020 88   @ Miami (FL) L 60-82 12%     0 - 1 -14.1 -9.2 -4.3
  Dec 06, 2020 34   @ Florida L 40-86 5%     0 - 2 -32.5 -27.4 -4.5
  Dec 08, 2020 99   @ South Florida L 62-73 14%     0 - 3 -4.3 -4.4 -0.1
  Dec 15, 2020 179   Florida Atlantic W 78-69 44%     1 - 3 +5.8 +6.1 +0.1
  Jan 08, 2021 273   @ North Alabama W 86-77 52%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +3.8 +8.5 -5.2
  Jan 09, 2021 273   @ North Alabama L 66-73 OT 52%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -12.2 -17.0 +6.0
  Jan 15, 2021 121   Liberty W 65-59 26%     3 - 4 2 - 1 +7.8 -5.2 +13.2
  Jan 16, 2021 121   Liberty L 58-68 26%     3 - 5 2 - 2 -8.2 -5.0 -4.7
  Jan 21, 2021 229   @ Bellarmine L 65-67 37%    
  Jan 23, 2021 229   @ Bellarmine L 65-67 37%    
  Jan 29, 2021 208   Lipscomb W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 30, 2021 208   Lipscomb W 72-71 56%    
  Feb 05, 2021 275   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 69-68 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 275   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 69-68 47%    
  Feb 19, 2021 341   Kennesaw St. W 72-60 88%    
  Feb 20, 2021 341   Kennesaw St. W 72-60 88%    
  Feb 26, 2021 291   @ Jacksonville W 69-68 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 291   @ Jacksonville W 69-68 51%    
Projected Record 9 - 9 8 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.9 2.6 0.9 5.8 1st
2nd 0.4 3.5 5.2 1.5 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 5.6 8.3 2.6 0.1 16.9 3rd
4th 0.6 6.1 11.4 3.4 0.1 21.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 10.4 3.4 0.1 18.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 7.4 3.4 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.5 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.2 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.6 8.5 15.3 20.3 20.8 15.6 9.9 4.2 0.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
11-5 62.2% 2.6    0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
10-6 19.6% 1.9    0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
9-7 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.9% 31.6% 31.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
11-5 4.2% 21.2% 21.2% 15.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 3.3
10-6 9.9% 18.0% 18.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.5 8.1
9-7 15.6% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.1 2.0 13.5
8-8 20.8% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1 18.7
7-9 20.3% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.3 19.1
6-10 15.3% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.7 14.6
5-11 8.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.3
4-12 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.5
3-13 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 8.3 90.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.1 1.8 23.2 41.1 32.1 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%