Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#290
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#260
Pace67.5#236
Improvement-0.9#219

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#293
First Shot-5.3#303
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#147
Layup/Dunks+0.0#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows-1.9#292
Improvement+0.2#156

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#256
First Shot-1.2#201
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#288
Layups/Dunks-0.9#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#304
Freethrows+1.1#115
Improvement-1.1#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.3% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 28.8% 43.4% 20.0%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 56.0% 26.2%
Conference Champion 5.4% 9.7% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 4.0% 3.1%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 411 - 712 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 213   Southern Miss W 66-51 42%     1 - 0 +9.4 -3.0 +13.3
  Dec 02, 2020 339   Presbyterian W 78-65 78%     2 - 0 -3.0 -8.7 +4.5
  Dec 04, 2020 95   @ Georgia L 65-98 9%     2 - 1 -25.7 -14.3 -6.4
  Dec 08, 2020 273   Campbell L 78-80 54%     2 - 2 -10.8 +1.1 -11.9
  Dec 10, 2020 292   New Orleans W 77-70 58%     3 - 2 -2.7 -2.8 -0.1
  Dec 13, 2020 345   @ South Carolina St. W 60-58 83%     4 - 2 -15.7 -16.8 +1.2
  Dec 19, 2020 93   @ Miami (FL) L 64-73 8%     4 - 3 -1.3 -2.1 +0.4
  Dec 21, 2020 151   @ Kansas St. L 46-70 17%     4 - 4 -21.3 -21.5 -1.8
  Jan 01, 2021 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 62-57 70%     5 - 4 1 - 0 -8.2 -11.1 +3.0
  Jan 02, 2021 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 72-66 70%     6 - 4 2 - 0 -7.2 -0.1 -6.9
  Jan 08, 2021 261   North Florida W 66-65 50%     7 - 4 3 - 0 -6.8 -12.2 +5.4
  Jan 09, 2021 261   North Florida L 68-70 50%     7 - 5 3 - 1 -9.8 -7.5 -2.4
  Jan 22, 2021 274   @ North Alabama L 81-82 OT 40%     7 - 6 3 - 2 -6.2 +0.3 -6.4
  Jan 23, 2021 274   @ North Alabama L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 29, 2021 117   Liberty L 60-69 22%    
  Jan 30, 2021 117   Liberty L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 04, 2021 216   @ Bellarmine L 61-67 26%    
  Feb 06, 2021 216   @ Bellarmine L 61-67 26%    
  Feb 12, 2021 224   Lipscomb L 69-71 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 224   Lipscomb L 69-71 49%    
  Feb 19, 2021 255   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-69 32%    
  Feb 20, 2021 255   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-69 31%    
  Feb 26, 2021 238   Stetson L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 27, 2021 238   Stetson L 68-69 51%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 2.6 0.4 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.4 5.5 0.6 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 9.1 1.8 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 10.0 3.8 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.7 7.9 6.4 0.3 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.2 9.5 0.9 17.4 7th
8th 1.6 6.0 6.7 1.7 0.0 16.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.7 7.1 13.6 20.6 19.6 17.8 10.8 5.4 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
12-4 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
11-5 82.3% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1
10-6 40.6% 2.2    0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1
9-7 2.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.2% 42.1% 42.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 1.0% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.1 0.9
11-5 2.1% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.2 1.9
10-6 5.4% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.4 5.0
9-7 10.8% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.9 9.9
8-8 17.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.7 17.1
7-9 19.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 19.1
6-10 20.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.5 20.1
5-11 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.5
4-12 7.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.6 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%