Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#121
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#130
Pace60.9#339
Improvement-5.4#343

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#133
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#264
Layup/Dunks-0.4#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#7
Freethrows-2.1#298
Improvement-5.1#348

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#121
First Shot-1.1#200
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#18
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#109
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement-0.3#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.0% 57.3% 51.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.3% 94.3%
Conference Champion 56.6% 63.4% 33.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 2.7%
First Round55.6% 57.2% 50.2%
Second Round5.6% 6.2% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 4
Quad 414 - 318 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 27   Purdue L 64-77 19%     0 - 1 -0.5 +0.7 -1.7
  Nov 26, 2020 76   Mississippi St. W 84-73 35%     1 - 1 +18.3 +25.7 -5.8
  Nov 28, 2020 92   South Carolina W 78-62 41%     2 - 1 +21.8 +13.8 +9.3
  Nov 29, 2020 103   TCU L 52-56 44%     2 - 2 +0.9 -13.8 +14.3
  Dec 03, 2020 254   St. Francis (PA) W 78-62 85%     3 - 2 +8.5 +4.8 +4.4
  Dec 09, 2020 42   @ Missouri L 60-69 18%     3 - 3 +4.2 +2.5 +0.6
  Dec 15, 2020 345   South Carolina St. W 82-52 98%     4 - 3 +8.6 +2.1 +7.3
  Dec 22, 2020 337   Alcorn St. W 108-65 95%     5 - 3 +27.4 +24.4 +2.0
  Jan 01, 2021 222   @ Lipscomb L 70-77 70%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -9.2 -6.7 -2.5
  Jan 02, 2021 222   @ Lipscomb W 66-50 70%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +13.8 -4.2 +19.7
  Jan 08, 2021 341   Kennesaw St. W 69-63 96%     7 - 4 2 - 1 -10.4 -2.7 -7.3
  Jan 09, 2021 341   Kennesaw St. W 76-47 96%     8 - 4 3 - 1 +12.6 +15.4 +3.1
  Jan 15, 2021 246   @ Stetson L 59-65 75%     8 - 5 3 - 2 -9.5 -15.5 +5.9
  Jan 16, 2021 246   @ Stetson W 68-58 75%     9 - 5 4 - 2 +6.5 +2.3 +5.6
  Jan 29, 2021 290   @ Jacksonville W 69-60 78%    
  Jan 30, 2021 290   @ Jacksonville W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 05, 2021 268   North Florida W 74-62 89%    
  Feb 06, 2021 268   North Florida W 74-62 89%    
  Feb 12, 2021 275   @ North Alabama W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 13, 2021 275   @ North Alabama W 70-61 75%    
  Feb 26, 2021 209   Bellarmine W 66-57 82%    
  Feb 27, 2021 209   Bellarmine W 66-57 82%    
Projected Record 15 - 7 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.5 9.1 25.4 21.6 56.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.4 12.2 6.9 0.5 24.1 2nd
3rd 1.3 6.7 3.6 0.5 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 1.5 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.7 1.2 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 5.0 13.3 24.9 32.9 22.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 97.8% 21.6    18.3 3.1 0.2
11-5 77.3% 25.4    14.6 9.3 1.5
10-6 36.4% 9.1    1.6 4.6 2.5 0.4
9-7 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 56.6% 56.6 34.5 17.0 4.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 22.1% 63.8% 63.8% 13.2 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.4 4.9 0.4 8.0
11-5 32.9% 58.9% 58.9% 14.1 0.2 3.4 10.3 5.2 0.3 13.5
10-6 24.9% 54.3% 54.3% 14.6 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.1 1.1 11.4
9-7 13.3% 47.4% 47.4% 15.1 0.1 1.1 3.4 1.7 7.0
8-8 5.0% 41.2% 41.2% 15.4 0.1 1.1 0.9 3.0
7-9 1.4% 33.0% 33.0% 15.7 0.2 0.3 1.0
6-10 0.4% 35.7% 35.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 56.0% 56.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 2.4 10.7 21.0 17.4 4.4 44.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.1% 100.0% 13.2 0.1 1.1 15.6 45.6 34.7 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%