Florida
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#33
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#61
Pace71.4#143
Improvement-3.8#336

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#36
First Shot+4.1#68
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#46
Layup/Dunks+1.2#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#209
Freethrows+2.2#51
Improvement-1.2#260

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#46
First Shot+4.7#47
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#155
Layups/Dunks-0.2#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#36
Freethrows-1.6#270
Improvement-2.6#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 2.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 10.6% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 17.4% 28.1% 10.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.1% 75.2% 46.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.0% 72.8% 43.6%
Average Seed 8.0 7.4 8.7
.500 or above 80.2% 92.1% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.4% 89.9% 65.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four7.7% 6.1% 8.8%
First Round54.7% 73.0% 42.5%
Second Round30.9% 43.5% 22.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 19.0% 8.3%
Elite Eight5.1% 7.7% 3.4%
Final Four1.7% 2.6% 1.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 7
Quad 23 - 27 - 9
Quad 35 - 212 - 11
Quad 42 - 014 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 195   Army W 76-69 90%     1 - 0 +4.5 -1.8 +5.8
  Dec 03, 2020 108   Boston College W 90-70 76%     2 - 0 +24.5 +8.8 +13.6
  Dec 06, 2020 232   Stetson W 86-40 95%     3 - 0 +39.6 +9.1 +30.0
  Dec 12, 2020 16   @ Florida St. L 71-83 31%     3 - 1 +5.1 -1.9 +8.1
  Dec 30, 2020 134   @ Vanderbilt W 91-72 78%     4 - 1 1 - 0 +22.7 +14.1 +7.8
  Jan 02, 2021 22   LSU W 83-79 48%     5 - 1 2 - 0 +16.3 +11.4 +4.9
  Jan 05, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 71-86 29%     5 - 2 2 - 1 +2.6 +2.2 +1.2
  Jan 09, 2021 57   Kentucky L 58-76 64%     5 - 3 2 - 2 -10.0 -4.9 -6.2
  Jan 12, 2021 70   Mississippi W 72-63 70%     6 - 3 3 - 2 +15.3 +9.8 +6.3
  Jan 16, 2021 68   @ Mississippi St. L 69-72 57%     6 - 4 3 - 3 +6.9 -2.9 +9.9
  Jan 19, 2021 5   Tennessee L 66-70 40%    
  Jan 23, 2021 96   @ Georgia W 81-76 63%    
  Jan 27, 2021 134   Vanderbilt W 81-69 89%    
  Jan 30, 2021 18   @ West Virginia L 71-76 29%    
  Feb 03, 2021 62   South Carolina W 79-74 71%    
  Feb 06, 2021 22   @ LSU L 77-81 32%    
  Feb 10, 2021 5   @ Tennessee L 64-72 20%    
  Feb 13, 2021 118   Texas A&M W 71-61 84%    
  Feb 16, 2021 42   @ Arkansas L 77-78 41%    
  Feb 20, 2021 96   Georgia W 83-75 81%    
  Feb 23, 2021 67   @ Auburn W 76-74 52%    
  Feb 27, 2021 57   @ Kentucky W 70-69 47%    
  Mar 03, 2021 36   Missouri W 72-70 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.7 1st
2nd 0.8 2.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 6.2 6.4 1.7 0.1 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.3 8.5 2.2 0.1 19.1 4th
5th 0.3 5.2 8.3 2.2 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 1.9 6.8 3.2 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.4 5.6 4.1 0.5 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 4.5 0.8 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.2 3.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 6.8 13.7 18.2 20.5 17.8 11.5 5.4 1.8 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 58.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 36.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 10.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.8% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 5.4% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.5% 99.5% 13.4% 86.1% 6.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.6 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-7 17.8% 93.6% 11.6% 81.9% 8.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.6 3.6 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 1.1 92.7%
10-8 20.5% 72.1% 7.2% 64.9% 9.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.8 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.7 69.9%
9-9 18.2% 36.2% 2.7% 33.5% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.6 34.4%
8-10 13.7% 8.3% 1.7% 6.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.6 6.6%
7-11 6.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.3%
6-12 3.1% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 3.1
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.1% 7.1% 51.1% 8.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 5.3 6.7 8.4 7.6 5.7 5.8 6.1 5.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 41.9 55.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 19.8 60.4 19.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 34.5 32.8 32.8