Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#228
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#253
Pace68.6#216
Improvement+1.3#93

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#316
First Shot-3.4#263
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#302
Layup/Dunks-0.8#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#298
Freethrows+1.6#76
Improvement-0.4#199

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#127
First Shot+0.4#167
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#88
Layups/Dunks+5.5#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#341
Freethrows+0.7#143
Improvement+1.7#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 57.4% 69.4% 37.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 85.2% 59.1%
Conference Champion 17.9% 24.4% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 21 - 4
Quad 49 - 610 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 04, 2020 53   @ Duke L 54-76 7%     0 - 1 -9.7 -13.8 +3.9
  Dec 06, 2020 329   @ Howard W 84-63 73%     1 - 1 +10.3 +7.0 +4.6
  Dec 09, 2020 175   Chattanooga L 68-77 44%     1 - 2 -11.7 -5.7 -6.3
  Dec 23, 2020 82   @ Notre Dame L 70-81 12%     1 - 3 -2.4 +4.4 -8.0
  Jan 08, 2021 209   Lipscomb L 72-77 53%     1 - 4 0 - 1 -10.0 -3.4 -6.8
  Jan 09, 2021 209   Lipscomb L 58-65 53%     1 - 5 0 - 2 -12.0 -9.5 -3.8
  Jan 15, 2021 276   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-60 54%     2 - 5 1 - 2 +8.7 -3.5 +11.4
  Jan 16, 2021 276   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-60 54%     3 - 5 2 - 2 +8.7 -3.5 +11.4
  Jan 22, 2021 231   Stetson W 67-65 62%    
  Jan 23, 2021 231   Stetson W 67-65 62%    
  Jan 29, 2021 340   @ Kennesaw St. W 67-58 76%    
  Jan 30, 2021 340   @ Kennesaw St. W 67-58 76%    
  Feb 04, 2021 289   Jacksonville W 66-61 73%    
  Feb 06, 2021 289   Jacksonville W 66-61 72%    
  Feb 12, 2021 261   @ North Florida W 70-69 45%    
  Feb 13, 2021 261   @ North Florida W 70-69 47%    
  Feb 18, 2021 272   North Alabama W 68-64 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 272   North Alabama W 68-64 69%    
  Feb 26, 2021 116   @ Liberty L 57-67 16%    
  Feb 27, 2021 116   @ Liberty L 57-67 16%    
Projected Record 10 - 10 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.4 7.0 5.4 1.5 0.2 17.9 1st
2nd 0.2 3.7 8.1 4.8 0.7 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 11.2 5.8 0.7 21.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 8.6 4.3 0.2 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.7 4.5 0.3 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.6 0.6 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.5 0.6 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.3 7.1 12.7 17.5 19.9 17.5 12.5 6.2 1.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 95.9% 1.5    1.4 0.1
12-4 88.5% 5.4    3.7 1.5 0.2
11-5 55.9% 7.0    2.5 3.2 1.2 0.0
10-6 19.3% 3.4    0.4 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
9-7 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 8.2 6.1 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.2% 0.2
13-3 1.6% 1.6
12-4 6.2% 6.2
11-5 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.4
10-6 17.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 17.3
9-7 19.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.7
8-8 17.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.4
7-9 12.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.6
6-10 7.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.0
5-11 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-12 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%
Lose Out 0.0%