Towson
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#226
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#237
Pace64.8#288
Improvement+0.5#152

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#182
First Shot-1.2#208
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks+0.9#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#329
Freethrows+1.8#62
Improvement-0.2#179

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#276
First Shot+1.2#131
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#346
Layups/Dunks+1.8#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#315
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement+0.6#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 8.9% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 17.2% 34.5% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 26.2% 48.0% 18.6%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 2.0% 9.1%
First Four3.4% 4.2% 3.1%
First Round4.3% 7.2% 3.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 46 - 39 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 8   Virginia L 54-89 3%     0 - 1 -17.7 -2.3 -20.6
  Nov 26, 2020 75   San Francisco L 68-79 14%     0 - 2 -3.7 +5.2 -9.8
  Nov 27, 2020 106   Buffalo L 65-74 20%     0 - 3 -4.3 -9.4 +5.4
  Dec 23, 2020 144   @ George Mason L 65-70 24%     0 - 4 -2.0 -7.4 +5.7
  Dec 26, 2020 316   Coppin St. W 78-73 78%     1 - 4 -7.3 -2.9 -4.8
  Jan 16, 2021 210   James Madison L 72-81 54%     1 - 5 0 - 1 -14.4 -4.2 -10.2
  Jan 18, 2021 195   UNC Wilmington W 72-69 51%     2 - 5 1 - 1 -1.6 -6.3 +4.7
  Jan 19, 2021 195   UNC Wilmington W 78-74 51%     3 - 5 2 - 1 -0.6 +2.7 -3.2
  Jan 23, 2021 170   @ Hofstra L 58-71 29%     3 - 6 2 - 2 -11.7 -3.9 -10.4
  Jan 24, 2021 170   @ Hofstra L 67-73 26%    
  Jan 27, 2021 210   @ James Madison L 73-76 37%    
  Jan 30, 2021 270   William & Mary W 71-67 68%    
  Jan 31, 2021 270   William & Mary W 71-67 69%    
  Feb 06, 2021 202   @ College of Charleston L 66-69 34%    
  Feb 07, 2021 202   @ College of Charleston L 66-69 35%    
  Feb 13, 2021 140   Northeastern L 64-68 40%    
  Feb 14, 2021 140   Northeastern L 64-68 39%    
  Feb 20, 2021 162   @ Drexel L 65-71 25%    
  Feb 21, 2021 162   @ Drexel L 65-71 26%    
  Feb 27, 2021 227   Delaware W 69-67 60%    
  Feb 28, 2021 227   Delaware W 69-67 61%    
Projected Record 8 - 13 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.4 2.9 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.0 7.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 0.2 4.4 7.4 2.1 0.1 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 8.3 2.5 0.1 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.5 6.4 4.6 0.3 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 3.2 6.8 1.0 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.5 2.1 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.4 1.9 0.1 6.6 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 2.9 10th
Total 0.4 2.5 6.3 11.2 17.5 19.0 16.8 13.0 8.1 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 81.8% 0.0    0.0
13-5 63.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 19.5% 0.3    0.1 0.2
11-7 7.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
10-8 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 20.3% 20.3% 14.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.3% 22.2% 22.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
11-7 3.4% 16.5% 16.5% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 2.8
10-8 8.1% 14.0% 14.0% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.0
9-9 13.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.1 1.0 11.9
8-10 16.8% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.1 15.6
7-11 19.0% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.9 18.1
6-12 17.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 17.1
5-13 11.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-14 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.6 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%