Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#8
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#19
Pace53.4#348
Improvement+2.8#46

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#13
First Shot+8.7#11
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks+2.2#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#52
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement+2.4#37

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#8
First Shot+6.4#22
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#59
Layups/Dunks+3.3#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#164
Freethrows+2.1#56
Improvement+0.4#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.1% 3.6% 1.1%
#1 Seed 17.9% 19.3% 11.0%
Top 2 Seed 40.3% 43.8% 23.7%
Top 4 Seed 72.5% 76.5% 53.6%
Top 6 Seed 87.2% 90.1% 73.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.6% 99.2% 95.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.9% 98.8% 94.0%
Average Seed 3.5 3.3 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.0% 93.2%
Conference Champion 59.0% 63.3% 38.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.8%
First Round98.3% 99.0% 95.0%
Second Round86.3% 88.5% 75.6%
Sweet Sixteen58.3% 60.3% 49.0%
Elite Eight31.9% 33.7% 23.5%
Final Four15.9% 17.2% 9.9%
Championship Game7.7% 8.2% 4.9%
National Champion3.7% 3.9% 2.7%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 82.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 24 - 3
Quad 27 - 211 - 5
Quad 35 - 116 - 6
Quad 43 - 019 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 220   Towson W 89-54 97%     1 - 0 +31.1 +26.4 +10.0
  Nov 27, 2020 88   San Francisco L 60-61 85%     1 - 1 +5.4 -1.4 +6.7
  Dec 01, 2020 256   St. Francis (PA) W 76-51 98%     2 - 1 +17.3 +8.4 +11.9
  Dec 04, 2020 96   Kent St. W 71-64 OT 90%     3 - 1 +10.5 +1.6 +9.3
  Dec 22, 2020 259   William & Mary W 76-40 98%     4 - 1 +28.1 +17.0 +19.6
  Dec 26, 2020 1   Gonzaga L 75-98 27%     4 - 2 +0.9 +11.4 -11.0
  Dec 30, 2020 81   @ Notre Dame W 66-57 80%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +17.6 +4.9 +14.3
  Jan 06, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 70-61 91%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +11.9 +10.7 +2.9
  Jan 09, 2021 106   @ Boston College W 61-49 85%     7 - 2 3 - 0 +18.3 +1.0 +19.4
  Jan 13, 2021 81   Notre Dame W 80-68 87%     8 - 2 4 - 0 +17.0 +13.6 +4.6
  Jan 16, 2021 54   @ Clemson W 85-50 69%     9 - 2 5 - 0 +47.1 +37.7 +16.7
  Jan 23, 2021 51   Georgia Tech W 67-58 83%    
  Jan 25, 2021 47   Syracuse W 68-60 82%    
  Jan 30, 2021 43   @ Virginia Tech W 62-58 63%    
  Feb 02, 2021 67   @ North Carolina St. W 67-60 72%    
  Feb 06, 2021 39   Louisville W 65-57 78%    
  Feb 10, 2021 51   @ Georgia Tech W 65-60 64%    
  Feb 13, 2021 34   North Carolina W 66-59 78%    
  Feb 15, 2021 15   @ Florida St. W 65-64 47%    
  Feb 20, 2021 52   @ Duke W 67-62 63%    
  Feb 24, 2021 59   Pittsburgh W 66-57 82%    
  Mar 01, 2021 93   Miami (FL) W 67-54 91%    
  Mar 06, 2021 39   @ Louisville W 63-59 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 5 14 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 8.1 16.4 18.7 10.5 4.0 59.0 1st
2nd 0.6 5.0 9.0 4.6 0.9 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.1 2.2 0.2 9.7 3rd
4th 0.6 2.7 1.2 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 7.3 12.7 19.4 21.2 19.6 10.5 4.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 4.0    4.0
16-4 100.0% 10.5    10.3 0.2
15-5 95.5% 18.7    16.0 2.7
14-6 77.5% 16.4    9.8 5.7 0.8 0.2
13-7 41.8% 8.1    2.1 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0
12-8 9.8% 1.2    0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 59.0% 59.0 42.3 12.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 4.0% 100.0% 54.0% 46.0% 1.3 2.9 1.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.5% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.5 5.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-5 19.6% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 2.0 5.5 8.7 4.6 0.9 100.0%
14-6 21.2% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 2.7 3.5 6.4 6.3 3.8 1.0 0.2 100.0%
13-7 19.4% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 3.9 0.3 2.0 5.3 5.8 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.7% 99.4% 25.6% 73.8% 5.3 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 7.3% 97.9% 15.9% 82.0% 6.9 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 97.5%
10-10 3.3% 91.8% 16.4% 75.4% 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 90.2%
9-11 1.7% 60.4% 9.5% 50.9% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 56.3%
8-12 0.3% 28.5% 28.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 28.5%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.6% 33.9% 64.7% 3.5 17.9 22.4 18.4 13.8 8.9 5.8 4.6 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.4 97.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 1.2 78.9 21.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 75.1 24.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 74.9 25.1