Preseason Rankings
Evansville
Missouri Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#198
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace57.8#357
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#225
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 7.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.6 11.7 13.3
.500 or above 29.8% 60.5% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 28.7% 50.3% 24.7%
Conference Champion 1.9% 4.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 22.6% 8.9% 25.1%
First Four0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round2.6% 7.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.4% 1.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 65 - 15
Quad 47 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 90   @ Cincinnati L 62-73 15%    
  Nov 11, 2021 333   IUPUI W 76-63 87%    
  Nov 13, 2021 81   @ Belmont L 64-76 15%    
  Nov 20, 2021 68   Central Florida L 61-68 28%    
  Nov 22, 2021 173   Rice L 69-71 45%    
  Nov 28, 2021 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-64 70%    
  Dec 01, 2021 140   Southern Illinois L 62-63 48%    
  Dec 04, 2021 301   Tennessee Tech W 72-63 76%    
  Dec 08, 2021 268   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 18, 2021 349   Tennessee Martin W 75-58 92%    
  Dec 21, 2021 62   @ SMU L 61-75 14%    
  Jan 02, 2022 107   @ Northern Iowa L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 05, 2022 176   @ Indiana St. L 62-66 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 223   Illinois St. W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 12, 2022 157   @ Bradley L 61-66 34%    
  Jan 15, 2022 73   Drake L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 18, 2022 46   Loyola Chicago L 56-65 23%    
  Jan 23, 2022 223   @ Illinois St. L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 26, 2022 107   Northern Iowa L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 96   @ Missouri St. L 62-72 21%    
  Feb 01, 2022 189   @ Valparaiso L 63-67 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 157   Bradley W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 09, 2022 176   Indiana St. W 65-63 55%    
  Feb 12, 2022 140   @ Southern Illinois L 59-66 30%    
  Feb 16, 2022 73   @ Drake L 59-71 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 189   Valparaiso W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 23, 2022 46   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-68 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 96   Missouri St. L 65-69 37%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.4 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.5 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.6 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 1.2 3.3 4.7 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 15.5 10th
Total 1.2 3.4 5.9 8.3 10.2 11.1 10.9 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.7 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 93.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 69.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 87.0% 48.1% 38.9% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0%
17-1 0.1% 82.5% 43.4% 39.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.2%
16-2 0.3% 57.2% 33.9% 23.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.2%
15-3 0.8% 41.0% 26.1% 14.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 20.2%
14-4 1.3% 26.1% 18.5% 7.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 9.3%
13-5 2.3% 16.9% 14.7% 2.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 2.6%
12-6 3.6% 9.8% 9.4% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.5%
11-7 5.2% 6.0% 5.7% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.2%
10-8 6.7% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.0%
9-9 8.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
8-10 9.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6
7-11 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.1
4-14 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
3-15 8.3% 8.3
2-16 5.9% 5.9
1-17 3.4% 3.4
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 2.7% 2.3% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 97.3 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%