IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.6	#226
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.1	#284
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#201

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#261

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.6%	11.4%	5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	14.4	15.1

.500 or above	43.2%	62.5%	30.1%
.500 or above in Conference	59.8%	72.8%	51.0%
Conference Champion	6.7%	10.6%	4.1%
Last Place in Conference	5.4%	2.4%	7.5%

First Four	1.4%	1.3%	1.5%
First Round	7.0%	10.8%	4.4%
Second Round	0.5%	1.1%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 3	2 - 5	3 - 11
Quad 4	11 - 5	14 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	235	@ College of Charleston	L	66-69	40%
Nov 13, 2021	352	South Carolina St.	W	82-67	90%
Nov 14, 2021	276	Loyola Maryland	W	72-69	59%
Nov 17, 2021	87	@ Dayton	L	61-74	13%
Nov 23, 2021	301	@ Tennessee Tech	W	72-71	53%
Dec 02, 2021	81	@ Belmont	L	68-81	14%
Dec 05, 2021	135	Chattanooga	L	68-71	41%
Dec 08, 2021	85	@ Miami (FL)	L	64-77	14%
Dec 12, 2021	289	Tennessee St.	W	76-70	70%
Dec 15, 2021	18	@ Florida St.	L	62-82	5%
Dec 22, 2021	36	@ LSU	L	67-85	7%
Dec 30, 2021	340	Alabama A&M	W	72-60	83%
Jan 04, 2022	318	North Alabama	W	76-68	75%
Jan 08, 2022	334	@ Central Arkansas	W	78-73	65%
Jan 11, 2022	164	@ Jacksonville St.	L	65-72	29%
Jan 15, 2022	165	Bellarmine	L	68-69	47%
Jan 18, 2022	180	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	75-81	32%
Jan 22, 2022	311	Kennesaw St.	W	74-66	73%
Jan 27, 2022	302	@ Jacksonville	W	70-69	54%
Jan 29, 2022	280	@ North Florida	L	71-72	49%
Feb 03, 2022	251	Stetson	W	73-69	63%
Feb 05, 2022	222	Florida Gulf Coast	W	75-72	59%
Feb 08, 2022	110	@ Liberty	L	60-71	19%
Feb 12, 2022	180	Eastern Kentucky	L	78-79	50%
Feb 16, 2022	164	Jacksonville St.	L	68-69	47%
Feb 19, 2022	318	@ North Alabama	W	73-71	57%
Feb 23, 2022	165	@ Bellarmine	L	65-72	30%
Feb 26, 2022	334	Central Arkansas	W	81-70	80%
Projected Record						13 - 15	8 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.2	1.1	0.3		6.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.4	2.2	3.5	2.3	0.6	0.1			9.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.5	3.0	4.4	2.3	0.3	0.0				10.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.5	3.2	5.1	2.0	0.2	0.0					11.0	4th
5th								0.3	3.1	5.1	2.3	0.3							11.0	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	2.7	5.3	2.5	0.3	0.0							11.0	6th
7th						0.2	2.0	4.8	2.8	0.4	0.0								10.2	7th
8th					0.1	1.4	4.2	2.9	0.4	0.0									9.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	1.0	3.4	2.7	0.4	0.0										7.6	9th
10th			0.1	1.0	2.6	2.2	0.5	0.0											6.3	10th
11th		0.1	0.7	1.8	1.4	0.4	0.0												4.4	11th
12th	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0													2.9	12th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.7	3.7	5.5	7.5	9.6	11.3	12.1	11.7	11.1	9.1	6.9	4.7	2.8	1.2	0.3			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
15-1	95.0%	1.1		1.0	0.1
14-2	77.3%	2.2		1.4	0.7	0.1
13-3	44.1%	2.1		0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0
12-4	13.3%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-5	2.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%	0.0				0.0		0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	6.7%	6.7		3.8	2.1	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.3%		62.9%	55.0%	7.9%	11.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.1		17.6%
15-1	1.2%		44.8%	44.0%	0.8%	12.9						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.7		1.4%
14-2	2.8%		34.6%	34.4%	0.2%	13.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	1.8		0.4%
13-3	4.7%		26.2%	26.2%		14.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	3.5
12-4	6.9%		17.6%	17.6%		14.8												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	5.7
11-5	9.1%		12.3%	12.3%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	8.0
10-6	11.1%		8.1%	8.1%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	10.2
9-7	11.7%		6.0%	6.0%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	11.0
8-8	12.1%		3.4%	3.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.4	11.6
7-9	11.3%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																0.0	0.2	11.0
6-10	9.6%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	9.5
5-11	7.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
4-12	5.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
3-13	3.7%																							3.7
2-14	1.7%																							1.7
1-15	0.7%																							0.7
0-16	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		7.6%	7.6%	0.0%	14.7			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.5	2.2	2.6	92.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%