Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#174
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#192
Pace75.0#57
Improvement-3.1#344

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#170
First Shot+4.3#57
After Offensive Rebound-4.2#353
Layup/Dunks+5.3#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
Freethrows+1.9#69
Improvement-1.3#300

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#188
First Shot-1.6#235
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#113
Layups/Dunks+0.3#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#244
Freethrows+0.8#143
Improvement-1.8#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 4.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 33.2% 61.8% 31.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.0% 68.3% 35.6%
Conference Champion 1.1% 7.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 1.9% 11.5%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round1.7% 4.0% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 65 - 14
Quad 49 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 300   @ Green Bay W 81-77 66%     1 - 0 -0.8 +1.6 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 67-92 3%     1 - 1 -2.6 -0.7 -0.8
  Nov 18, 2021 233   Old Dominion W 77-36 62%     2 - 1 +37.4 +6.5 +32.6
  Nov 19, 2021 35   Oklahoma L 63-87 13%     2 - 2 -12.3 -7.2 -3.6
  Nov 20, 2021 93   New Mexico St. L 66-80 28%     2 - 3 -8.3 -3.6 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2021 212   @ Ball St. L 75-97 45%     2 - 4 -21.2 -1.9 -18.5
  Dec 01, 2021 32   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-77 7%    
  Dec 04, 2021 141   Miami (OH) W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 13, 2021 168   @ North Dakota St. L 68-71 38%    
  Dec 18, 2021 344   Alabama A&M W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 22, 2021 312   @ Northern Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 29, 2021 309   Coppin St. W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 02, 2022 211   Bradley W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 05, 2022 252   Evansville W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 54   @ Drake L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 11, 2022 114   @ Northern Iowa L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 32   Loyola Chicago L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 19, 2022 158   @ Southern Illinois L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 22, 2022 202   Valparaiso W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 25, 2022 90   Missouri St. L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 30, 2022 211   @ Bradley L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 02, 2022 54   Drake L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 202   @ Valparaiso L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 09, 2022 252   @ Evansville W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 12, 2022 243   Illinois St. W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 15, 2022 90   @ Missouri St. L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 158   Southern Illinois W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 23, 2022 114   Northern Iowa L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 243   @ Illinois St. W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 3.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.8 3.4 0.8 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.8 6.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 5.5 6.7 2.7 0.5 16.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.5 5.6 1.8 0.2 14.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.5 4.9 1.4 0.2 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.6 9.4 12.5 13.7 14.1 12.2 10.0 7.5 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 92.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 81.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 30.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 14.6% 14.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.1% 5.5% 5.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.4% 8.4% 8.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-6 4.2% 4.6% 4.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.0
11-7 7.5% 4.9% 4.9% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
10-8 10.0% 2.8% 2.8% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
9-9 12.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.9
8-10 14.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.0
7-11 13.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.7
6-12 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.5
5-13 9.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-14 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 98.2 0.0%