Purdue
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.6#2
Expected Predictive Rating+23.0#1
Pace67.0#237
Improvement+1.6#60

Offense
Total Offense+14.4#1
First Shot+10.9#5
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#20
Layup/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#29
Freethrows+3.1#22
Improvement+1.1#73

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#37
First Shot+6.0#26
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#164
Layups/Dunks+6.6#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#278
Freethrows+4.1#4
Improvement+0.5#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 20.8% 22.9% 12.2%
#1 Seed 54.5% 58.7% 37.3%
Top 2 Seed 79.3% 83.3% 62.9%
Top 4 Seed 94.2% 96.3% 85.7%
Top 6 Seed 98.4% 99.2% 95.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.8% 99.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.7 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.5% 96.7%
Conference Champion 57.9% 63.3% 36.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round95.4% 96.3% 92.1%
Sweet Sixteen74.8% 76.5% 68.2%
Elite Eight52.9% 54.9% 44.6%
Final Four34.3% 35.8% 27.8%
Championship Game20.6% 21.8% 15.7%
National Champion12.1% 12.9% 8.6%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 112 - 4
Quad 28 - 119 - 5
Quad 34 - 023 - 5
Quad 45 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 177   Bellarmine W 96-67 98%     1 - 0 +25.1 +24.0 +2.5
  Nov 12, 2021 174   Indiana St. W 92-67 98%     2 - 0 +21.5 +13.5 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2021 205   Wright St. W 96-52 98%     3 - 0 +39.1 +13.9 +22.3
  Nov 20, 2021 43   North Carolina W 93-84 83%     4 - 0 +19.4 +13.8 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2021 6   Villanova W 80-74 61%     5 - 0 +23.6 +26.0 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2021 335   Nebraska Omaha W 97-40 99.6%    6 - 0 +41.9 +21.6 +23.2
  Nov 30, 2021 31   Florida St. W 93-65 85%     7 - 0 +37.2 +27.8 +10.2
  Dec 03, 2021 19   Iowa W 87-78 80%    
  Dec 09, 2021 87   @ Rutgers W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 12, 2021 64   North Carolina St. W 81-68 89%    
  Dec 18, 2021 103   Butler W 75-59 94%    
  Dec 20, 2021 350   Incarnate Word W 92-54 100.0%   
  Dec 29, 2021 233   Nicholls St. W 89-62 99.5%   
  Jan 03, 2022 29   Wisconsin W 73-62 84%    
  Jan 08, 2022 67   @ Penn St. W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 11, 2022 15   @ Michigan W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 14, 2022 107   Nebraska W 86-67 96%    
  Jan 17, 2022 30   @ Illinois W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 20, 2022 34   @ Indiana W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 23, 2022 47   Northwestern W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 27, 2022 19   @ Iowa W 84-81 61%    
  Jan 30, 2022 25   Ohio St. W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 02, 2022 94   @ Minnesota W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 05, 2022 15   Michigan W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 30   Illinois W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 13, 2022 52   Maryland W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 16, 2022 47   @ Northwestern W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 20, 2022 87   Rutgers W 78-61 94%    
  Feb 26, 2022 22   @ Michigan St. W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 01, 2022 29   @ Wisconsin W 70-65 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 34   Indiana W 79-67 85%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.1 11.9 14.5 13.5 8.7 3.1 57.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.9 6.7 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.1 2.0 0.2 9.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.7 6.8 11.2 13.8 16.9 16.0 13.7 8.7 3.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
19-1 99.8% 8.7    8.6 0.1
18-2 98.4% 13.5    12.6 0.9
17-3 90.6% 14.5    11.6 2.8 0.1
16-4 70.5% 11.9    7.0 4.3 0.6
15-5 36.8% 5.1    1.7 2.5 0.8 0.2
14-6 9.7% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 57.9% 57.9 44.9 11.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.1% 100.0% 64.6% 35.4% 1.1 2.9 0.2 100.0%
19-1 8.7% 100.0% 61.2% 38.8% 1.1 7.9 0.9 100.0%
18-2 13.7% 100.0% 55.9% 44.1% 1.1 11.9 1.7 0.1 100.0%
17-3 16.0% 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 1.2 12.3 3.6 0.1 100.0%
16-4 16.9% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 1.4 10.9 5.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.8% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.8 5.7 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.2% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 2.3 2.3 4.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.8% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 2.9 0.6 1.7 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.7% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.8 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-9 2.5% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 4.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 1.5% 99.9% 9.8% 90.1% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-11 0.6% 96.4% 3.9% 92.5% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.3%
8-12 0.3% 79.0% 0.6% 78.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 78.9%
7-13 0.1% 61.1% 61.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.1%
6-14 0.0% 4.5% 4.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 4.5%
5-15
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 40.8% 59.0% 1.9 54.5 24.8 10.2 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 1.0 95.4 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.1 7.9