Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#114
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#225
Pace70.9#135
Improvement+5.1#2

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#85
First Shot+2.3#111
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#109
Layup/Dunks-1.7#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#87
Freethrows+2.7#43
Improvement+4.3#3

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#166
First Shot-2.4#250
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#37
Layups/Dunks-2.2#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#297
Freethrows+1.7#92
Improvement+0.8#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 11.2% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.6% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.2 11.9 13.0
.500 or above 59.4% 69.7% 43.3%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 82.4% 58.6%
Conference Champion 7.3% 9.8% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.0% 4.5%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round8.9% 10.7% 5.9%
Second Round2.0% 2.5% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 33 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 47 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 232   Nicholls St. L 58-62 83%     0 - 1 -10.5 -14.0 +3.2
  Nov 11, 2021 107   Vermont L 57-71 59%     0 - 2 -12.7 -13.0 +0.5
  Nov 17, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 80-93 12%     0 - 3 +3.4 +8.8 -4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 38   @ St. Bonaventure W 90-80 17%     1 - 3 +23.8 +20.7 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2021 211   @ Bradley W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 05, 2021 76   Richmond L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 14, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 73-62 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 116   @ Marshall L 81-84 39%    
  Dec 22, 2021 173   Liberty W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 02, 2022 252   Evansville W 73-61 85%    
  Jan 05, 2022 202   Valparaiso W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 08, 2022 90   @ Missouri St. L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 11, 2022 174   Indiana St. W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 15, 2022 158   @ Southern Illinois W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 19, 2022 202   @ Valparaiso W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 54   Drake L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 26, 2022 252   @ Evansville W 70-64 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 243   Illinois St. W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 02, 2022 211   Bradley W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 05, 2022 54   @ Drake L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 09, 2022 158   Southern Illinois W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 13, 2022 32   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 15, 2022 243   @ Illinois St. W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 20, 2022 90   Missouri St. W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 23, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 32   Loyola Chicago L 66-71 32%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 7.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.7 4.1 1.3 0.1 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 5.7 7.4 3.7 1.0 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.7 3.7 7.3 5.7 2.1 0.3 19.9 4th
5th 0.6 3.9 6.0 3.5 0.9 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.5 1.9 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 2.8 1.1 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.3 1.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.9 7.0 10.3 12.0 13.4 13.1 12.4 9.5 6.9 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.9% 1.7    1.3 0.4
15-3 62.8% 2.1    1.2 0.9 0.1
14-4 26.7% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 8.4% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 3.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 72.7% 41.8% 30.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 53.1%
16-2 1.8% 52.6% 32.6% 20.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 29.7%
15-3 3.4% 30.2% 23.8% 6.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 8.5%
14-4 6.9% 23.4% 21.5% 1.9% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.3 2.4%
13-5 9.5% 14.9% 14.5% 0.4% 12.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 8.1 0.5%
12-6 12.4% 10.0% 10.0% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.1
11-7 13.1% 7.2% 7.2% 13.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 12.2
10-8 13.4% 4.9% 4.9% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.7
9-9 12.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.6
8-10 10.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1
7-11 7.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-13 2.5% 2.5
4-14 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.2% 8.2% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 90.8 1.1%