Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#33
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#75
Pace62.7#326
Improvement-2.4#335

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#51
First Shot+6.3#26
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#256
Layup/Dunks+4.9#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#42
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement-2.3#341

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#26
First Shot+3.2#75
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#16
Layups/Dunks+2.1#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#138
Freethrows+1.2#117
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.9% 5.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 10.6% 11.3% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.2% 62.6% 43.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.3% 27.7% 12.3%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 11.1
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.5% 98.2%
Conference Champion 65.8% 67.4% 46.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four5.9% 6.0% 4.4%
First Round58.9% 60.3% 41.8%
Second Round30.5% 31.5% 17.9%
Sweet Sixteen12.3% 13.0% 4.3%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.5% 2.1%
Final Four2.2% 2.2% 1.1%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 24 - 5
Quad 38 - 213 - 7
Quad 412 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 307   Coppin St. W 103-45 97%     1 - 0 +46.9 +17.2 +24.1
  Nov 13, 2021 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 89-77 93%     2 - 0 +7.7 +10.4 -3.0
  Nov 16, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 92-56 99%     3 - 0 +14.9 +7.0 +6.8
  Nov 20, 2021 252   Illinois-Chicago W 80-63 96%     4 - 0 +9.1 +11.8 -0.8
  Nov 24, 2021 22   Michigan St. L 61-63 42%     4 - 1 +11.8 -2.1 +13.9
  Nov 25, 2021 21   Auburn L 53-62 42%     4 - 2 +4.9 -7.7 +11.7
  Nov 26, 2021 96   Arizona St. W 77-59 73%     5 - 2 +23.3 +15.2 +10.4
  Dec 01, 2021 174   Indiana St. W 76-61 93%    
  Dec 04, 2021 86   @ DePaul W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 10, 2021 77   @ Vanderbilt W 66-64 58%    
  Dec 19, 2021 250   Norfolk St. W 77-57 96%    
  Dec 22, 2021 73   @ Davidson W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 02, 2022 154   @ Southern Illinois W 66-58 77%    
  Jan 05, 2022 241   @ Illinois St. W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 08, 2022 213   Bradley W 72-55 94%    
  Jan 11, 2022 204   Valparaiso W 72-55 93%    
  Jan 15, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 18, 2022 245   @ Evansville W 67-54 89%    
  Jan 22, 2022 93   Missouri St. W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 25, 2022 154   Southern Illinois W 69-55 90%    
  Jan 30, 2022 58   @ Drake W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 02, 2022 241   Illinois St. W 79-60 95%    
  Feb 06, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 09, 2022 213   @ Bradley W 69-58 83%    
  Feb 13, 2022 112   Northern Iowa W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 16, 2022 204   @ Valparaiso W 69-58 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 58   Drake W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 23, 2022 245   Evansville W 70-51 96%    
  Feb 26, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 7.8 15.4 19.4 15.1 5.6 65.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.7 6.9 4.0 1.0 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.8 3.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.8 6.7 10.6 15.5 19.5 20.3 15.1 5.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.6    5.6
17-1 100.0% 15.1    14.8 0.3
16-2 95.3% 19.4    17.1 2.3 0.0
15-3 79.1% 15.4    10.7 4.4 0.3
14-4 50.2% 7.8    3.9 3.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.1% 2.4    0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1
12-6 2.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.8% 65.8 52.8 11.5 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.6% 97.2% 75.0% 22.2% 5.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 88.9%
17-1 15.1% 89.2% 61.5% 27.6% 7.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 1.6 71.8%
16-2 20.3% 76.2% 56.5% 19.7% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.3 3.0 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.8 45.2%
15-3 19.5% 62.4% 47.8% 14.6% 11.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 4.6 3.9 0.5 0.0 7.3 28.0%
14-4 15.5% 49.4% 41.9% 7.4% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.9 12.8%
13-5 10.6% 35.8% 32.6% 3.2% 12.1 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 6.8 4.7%
12-6 6.7% 27.4% 26.2% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.9 1.7%
11-7 3.8% 22.6% 22.1% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.9 0.7%
10-8 1.6% 21.9% 21.9% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2
9-9 0.7% 18.2% 18.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 61.2% 47.3% 13.8% 9.6 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.9 7.1 13.6 13.5 3.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 38.8 26.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 3.0 9.6 26.6 29.5 24.7 6.9 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 4.1 32.0 32.8 32.0 0.8 1.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 65.6 18.0 16.4