Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#232
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#142
Pace73.7#77
Improvement-1.7#306

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#256
First Shot-3.2#273
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#134
Layup/Dunks+2.3#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#214
Freethrows-3.1#334
Improvement+0.2#155

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#203
First Shot-0.4#189
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#218
Layups/Dunks+1.5#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#119
Freethrows-3.2#327
Improvement-1.8#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.7% 40.2% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 89.4% 90.2% 69.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 95.4% 92.1%
Conference Champion 49.6% 50.2% 35.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four20.3% 20.3% 22.0%
First Round29.2% 29.7% 18.1%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 95.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 415 - 416 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 114   @ Northern Iowa W 62-58 17%     1 - 0 +10.6 -5.6 +16.4
  Nov 15, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 60-89 2%     1 - 1 -7.2 -8.9 +4.5
  Nov 18, 2021 89   @ TCU L 50-63 13%     1 - 2 -4.1 -15.3 +10.5
  Nov 22, 2021 315   Cal Poly W 75-72 OT 69%     2 - 2 -5.7 -7.1 +1.2
  Nov 24, 2021 153   Utah Valley L 63-74 33%     2 - 3 -10.1 -7.2 -3.3
  Dec 09, 2021 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 86-68 96%    
  Dec 15, 2021 31   @ Wisconsin L 56-75 4%    
  Dec 18, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 89-65 99%    
  Dec 21, 2021 128   @ Oregon St. L 64-73 21%    
  Dec 29, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 61-87 1%    
  Jan 15, 2022 271   @ New Orleans L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 347   Northwestern St. W 83-69 89%    
  Jan 22, 2022 325   SE Louisiana W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 27, 2022 327   @ McNeese St. W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 352   @ Houston Baptist W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 03, 2022 349   @ Incarnate Word W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 10, 2022 349   Incarnate Word W 78-64 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 317   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 17, 2022 327   McNeese St. W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 352   Houston Baptist W 82-67 90%    
  Feb 24, 2022 347   @ Northwestern St. W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 325   @ SE Louisiana W 74-71 62%    
  Mar 02, 2022 317   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 05, 2022 271   New Orleans W 82-76 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.6 5.0 12.3 15.2 12.0 4.4 49.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.8 9.3 6.3 1.3 0.1 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.0 2.7 0.3 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.6 1.1 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 5.1 8.6 12.6 17.1 18.9 16.5 12.1 4.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
13-1 99.3% 12.0    11.4 0.6
12-2 92.2% 15.2    12.2 2.9 0.1
11-3 65.0% 12.3    6.6 4.9 0.8 0.0
10-4 29.4% 5.0    1.2 2.5 1.1 0.2
9-5 4.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 49.6% 49.6 35.9 11.0 2.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 4.4% 72.8% 72.8% 15.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.2
13-1 12.1% 61.2% 61.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.2 4.7
12-2 16.5% 52.6% 52.6% 15.8 0.1 1.6 6.9 7.8
11-3 18.9% 45.1% 45.1% 15.9 0.7 7.9 10.4
10-4 17.1% 36.8% 36.8% 16.0 0.1 6.2 10.8
9-5 12.6% 25.7% 25.7% 16.0 0.0 3.2 9.3
8-6 8.6% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6 7.1
7-7 5.1% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.6 4.5
6-8 2.6% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.2 2.4
5-9 1.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-10 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.8 31.6 60.3 0.0%