Baylor
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.8#3
Expected Predictive Rating+19.7#7
Pace69.6#170
Improvement+0.1#172

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#5
First Shot+7.5#15
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#33
Layup/Dunks+6.1#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#126
Freethrows-2.7#321
Improvement+0.6#108

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#12
First Shot+3.9#67
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#7
Layups/Dunks+8.1#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement-0.5#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.4% 9.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 30.8% 30.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 54.6% 54.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 82.2% 82.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 93.3% 93.3% 50.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.1% 50.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 98.8% 50.0%
Average Seed 2.8 2.8 5.0
.500 or above 100.0% 99.9% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 96.7% 50.0%
Conference Champion 45.2% 45.2% 50.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round99.0% 99.0% 50.0%
Second Round90.2% 90.2% 50.0%
Sweet Sixteen64.9% 64.9% 50.0%
Elite Eight41.5% 41.5% 50.0%
Final Four24.4% 24.4% 50.0%
Championship Game13.6% 13.6% 0.0%
National Champion7.4% 7.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 117 - 6
Quad 34 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 349   Incarnate Word W 87-60 99.7%    1 - 0 +9.4 +2.5 +6.7
  Nov 15, 2021 232   Nicholls St. W 89-60 98%     2 - 0 +22.5 +5.2 +14.5
  Nov 17, 2021 342   Central Arkansas W 92-47 99.6%    3 - 0 +29.0 -4.6 +26.3
  Nov 20, 2021 97   Stanford W 86-48 93%     4 - 0 +40.2 +21.7 +21.2
  Nov 24, 2021 96   Arizona St. W 75-63 89%     5 - 0 +17.3 +5.3 +12.3
  Nov 25, 2021 79   Virginia Commonwealth W 69-61 87%     6 - 0 +14.6 +7.2 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2021 21   Michigan St. W 75-58 68%     7 - 0 +31.0 +18.6 +14.1
  Dec 04, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-51 100.0%   
  Dec 12, 2021 8   Villanova W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 18, 2021 56   @ Oregon W 75-68 76%    
  Dec 20, 2021 326   Alcorn St. W 87-55 99.8%   
  Dec 28, 2021 347   Northwestern St. W 94-58 100.0%   
  Jan 01, 2022 61   @ Iowa St. W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 04, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 08, 2022 89   @ TCU W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 11, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 34   Oklahoma St. W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 18, 2022 46   @ West Virginia W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 25, 2022 101   Kansas St. W 76-59 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 18   @ Alabama W 79-78 54%    
  Jan 31, 2022 46   West Virginia W 78-66 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 09, 2022 101   @ Kansas St. W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 11   Texas W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 16, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 89   TCU W 78-62 92%    
  Feb 21, 2022 34   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 9   Kansas W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 28, 2022 11   @ Texas L 66-67 49%    
  Mar 05, 2022 61   Iowa St. W 79-65 89%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.2 9.3 12.0 11.2 6.0 1.7 45.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.1 8.1 6.3 2.6 0.3 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.1 5.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.6 1.2 0.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.6 6.0 9.5 12.5 15.2 16.0 14.6 11.5 6.0 1.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 6.0    5.9 0.1
16-2 97.4% 11.2    10.3 0.9
15-3 82.0% 12.0    9.0 2.9 0.1
14-4 57.9% 9.3    5.1 3.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 27.6% 4.2    1.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.2% 45.2 33.4 9.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 6.0% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.2 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.5% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.3 8.7 2.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.6% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 1.6 7.8 5.6 1.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 16.0% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 2.0 5.0 6.8 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.2% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 2.6 2.2 5.1 5.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.5% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 3.4 0.6 2.0 4.5 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 100.0%
11-7 9.5% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 4.3 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.0% 99.7% 12.3% 87.4% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 3.6% 98.3% 7.3% 91.1% 6.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.2%
8-10 1.8% 86.8% 6.6% 80.2% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 85.9%
7-11 1.0% 71.0% 3.0% 68.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 70.1%
6-12 0.4% 61.1% 61.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.1%
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 31.1% 68.1% 2.8 30.8 23.8 17.6 10.1 6.7 4.5 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 98.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 92.5 7.5