Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#152
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#122
Pace72.3#95
Improvement+0.3#151

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#146
First Shot+0.8#154
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#173
Layup/Dunks+7.1#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#338
Freethrows+1.2#94
Improvement-0.2#199

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#165
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#36
Layups/Dunks-1.0#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#62
Freethrows-6.4#354
Improvement+0.5#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.4% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 83.2% 86.0% 63.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.2% 86.3% 76.7%
Conference Champion 14.6% 15.4% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.7% 13.3% 7.7%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 56 - 9
Quad 411 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 59   South Dakota St. L 71-83 36%     0 - 1 -7.2 -9.1 +2.8
  Nov 19, 2021 185   Middle Tennessee W 87-74 70%     1 - 1 +8.9 +6.0 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2021 71   Buffalo W 79-78 29%     2 - 1 +8.0 +0.5 +7.4
  Nov 24, 2021 60   Saint Louis L 68-79 26%     2 - 2 -3.3 -3.4 +0.5
  Nov 28, 2021 347   @ Northwestern St. W 83-71 88%    
  Dec 11, 2021 173   Liberty W 67-65 56%    
  Dec 14, 2021 272   Louisiana Monroe W 80-70 83%    
  Dec 18, 2021 9   @ Kansas L 67-86 4%    
  Dec 21, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 72-63 79%    
  Dec 30, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-72 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 318   Lamar W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 06, 2022 147   @ Abilene Christian L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 08, 2022 180   @ Tarleton St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 15, 2022 216   @ Sam Houston St. W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 20, 2022 126   Grand Canyon W 69-67 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 93   New Mexico St. L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 26, 2022 176   @ Seattle L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 215   @ California Baptist W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 03, 2022 153   Utah Valley W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 301   Dixie St. W 85-73 85%    
  Feb 10, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 82-66 92%    
  Feb 16, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 85-63 97%    
  Feb 19, 2022 318   @ Lamar W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 24, 2022 216   Sam Houston St. W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 147   Abilene Christian W 73-70 59%    
  Mar 02, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 65-73 26%    
  Mar 05, 2022 282   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-75 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.8 3.4 1.4 0.2 14.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.8 4.9 1.9 0.3 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.5 5.2 1.3 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.9 5.9 1.3 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.5 1.8 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.2 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.0 7.1 9.5 11.9 14.3 15.0 12.5 9.8 6.8 3.7 1.4 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-2 93.2% 3.4    2.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.3% 4.8    2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.9% 3.5    1.1 1.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 9.2% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 8.4 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 63.6% 54.5% 9.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.0%
17-1 1.4% 53.2% 51.8% 1.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2.9%
16-2 3.7% 40.5% 39.7% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 1.4%
15-3 6.8% 33.6% 33.6% 13.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.1 4.5
14-4 9.8% 24.6% 24.6% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.4
13-5 12.5% 20.1% 20.1% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.0 10.0
12-6 15.0% 11.1% 11.1% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 13.3
11-7 14.3% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 13.4
10-8 11.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.5
9-9 9.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.3
8-10 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
7-11 4.0% 4.0
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 3.7 4.2 2.6 0.3 87.3 0.1%