Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#60
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#59
Pace71.7#111
Improvement-0.8#253

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#67
First Shot+3.0#91
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#102
Layup/Dunks+2.4#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#263
Freethrows+1.6#78
Improvement-0.6#259

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#78
First Shot+3.1#83
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#151
Layups/Dunks+1.4#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#49
Freethrows-2.4#302
Improvement-0.2#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 5.0% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 39.5% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.2% 26.7% 12.8%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 92.9% 97.1% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 90.3% 85.9%
Conference Champion 16.8% 20.6% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four6.2% 7.8% 5.2%
First Round26.9% 35.5% 21.1%
Second Round10.5% 14.3% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 4.4% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 37 - 213 - 11
Quad 49 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 342   Central Arkansas W 96-61 98%     1 - 0 +19.0 +5.4 +10.3
  Nov 12, 2021 341   Eastern Illinois W 86-44 97%     2 - 0 +26.3 +7.1 +19.0
  Nov 16, 2021 22   @ Memphis L 74-90 20%     2 - 1 +0.8 +0.2 +3.2
  Nov 20, 2021 197   Mercer W 75-58 87%     3 - 1 +12.3 +4.1 +9.3
  Nov 23, 2021 243   Illinois St. W 82-76 86%     4 - 1 +1.9 +2.7 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2021 152   Stephen F. Austin W 79-68 74%     5 - 1 +12.1 +4.0 +7.8
  Nov 30, 2021 67   @ Boise St. L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 04, 2021 52   UAB W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 07, 2021 63   Belmont W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 11, 2021 133   Boston College W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 18, 2021 20   Auburn L 75-78 38%    
  Dec 22, 2021 54   Drake L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 30, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts W 82-80 55%    
  Jan 02, 2022 76   Richmond W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 05, 2022 234   La Salle W 78-64 90%    
  Jan 08, 2022 38   @ St. Bonaventure L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 11, 2022 120   @ Dayton W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 246   Fordham W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 23, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 85-77 75%    
  Jan 26, 2022 264   George Washington W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 29, 2022 193   @ Duquesne W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 02, 2022 117   @ George Mason W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 120   Dayton W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 08, 2022 234   @ La Salle W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 11, 2022 38   St. Bonaventure L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 83   @ Davidson L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 22, 2022 218   Saint Joseph's W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 25, 2022 76   @ Richmond L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 02, 2022 72   @ Rhode Island L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 79   Virginia Commonwealth W 66-62 65%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.0 5.3 3.9 1.6 0.4 16.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.9 5.4 2.0 0.3 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.9 5.2 1.5 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.9 5.4 1.2 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.4 3.6 5.0 1.8 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.8 1.8 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.4 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.6 2.2 2.2 0.4 5.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.5 3.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.6 5.7 8.4 12.2 13.6 15.1 13.8 11.0 7.5 4.2 1.6 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 93.0% 3.9    3.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 71.5% 5.3    3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 36.7% 4.0    1.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.4% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 9.8 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 97.2% 41.7% 55.6% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2%
17-1 1.6% 94.5% 44.8% 49.7% 5.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 90.0%
16-2 4.2% 88.9% 34.1% 54.8% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 83.2%
15-3 7.5% 77.6% 32.5% 45.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.7 66.8%
14-4 11.0% 57.7% 23.5% 34.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.1 1.0 0.1 4.6 44.6%
13-5 13.8% 39.1% 19.6% 19.5% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.4 24.2%
12-6 15.1% 23.7% 13.3% 10.4% 11.4 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.6 12.0%
11-7 13.6% 14.5% 9.8% 4.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.7 5.1%
10-8 12.2% 7.5% 5.6% 1.9% 12.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.2 2.0%
9-9 8.4% 4.7% 4.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.4%
8-10 5.7% 3.3% 3.2% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5 0.2%
7-11 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 3.6
6-12 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.2% 14.6% 15.5% 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.0 3.3 4.8 8.3 6.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 69.8 18.2%