Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#147
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#154
Pace71.7#112
Improvement-0.4#221

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#204
First Shot-2.6#256
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#90
Layup/Dunks+0.9#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#278
Freethrows-1.4#263
Improvement-0.2#209

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#97
First Shot+4.6#51
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#289
Layups/Dunks+6.7#12
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#241
Freethrows-2.6#309
Improvement-0.2#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 14.6% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 83.5% 84.5% 56.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 86.0% 67.3%
Conference Champion 16.2% 16.5% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round14.3% 14.5% 6.8%
Second Round2.0% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 34 - 7
Quad 412 - 316 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 51   @ Utah L 56-70 17%     0 - 1 -2.1 -10.8 +8.8
  Nov 12, 2021 81   @ Texas A&M L 80-81 2OT 22%     0 - 2 +8.6 +4.7 +4.0
  Nov 16, 2021 263   @ Texas Arlington W 80-71 OT 66%     1 - 2 +6.4 -3.1 +8.2
  Dec 04, 2021 349   Incarnate Word W 79-60 97%    
  Dec 11, 2021 167   Drexel W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 15, 2021 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-62 73%    
  Dec 22, 2021 209   Longwood W 69-62 73%    
  Dec 30, 2021 153   @ Utah Valley L 68-70 41%    
  Jan 01, 2022 301   @ Dixie St. W 80-74 72%    
  Jan 06, 2022 152   Stephen F. Austin W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 08, 2022 216   Sam Houston St. W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 13, 2022 126   @ Grand Canyon L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 15, 2022 93   @ New Mexico St. L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 20, 2022 176   Seattle W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 215   California Baptist W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 26, 2022 282   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 318   @ Lamar W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 02, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 83-60 98%    
  Feb 05, 2022 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 12, 2022 180   @ Tarleton St. L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 17, 2022 216   @ Sam Houston St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 24, 2022 318   Lamar W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 152   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-73 41%    
  Mar 03, 2022 301   Dixie St. W 83-71 85%    
  Mar 05, 2022 180   Tarleton St. W 66-61 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.2 4.1 1.8 0.5 16.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.2 5.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.0 5.3 1.6 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.8 5.5 1.4 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.4 3.3 5.0 1.4 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 4.4 1.9 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.5 2.2 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.7 0.3 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.5 8.2 11.3 13.3 13.5 13.0 11.1 8.2 4.5 1.8 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 98.9% 1.8    1.6 0.2
16-2 90.2% 4.1    3.1 1.0 0.0
15-3 63.2% 5.2    2.9 1.9 0.3
14-4 32.6% 3.6    1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 7.8% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.2% 16.2 9.3 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 66.0% 60.4% 5.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14.3%
17-1 1.8% 46.9% 45.8% 1.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.1%
16-2 4.5% 39.9% 39.9% 12.9 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.7
15-3 8.2% 33.7% 33.7% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 5.4
14-4 11.1% 27.9% 27.9% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.0 8.0
13-5 13.0% 18.4% 18.4% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.0 10.6
12-6 13.5% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 11.9
11-7 13.3% 6.6% 6.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 12.5
10-8 11.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.8
9-9 8.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.0
8-10 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
7-11 4.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.8 4.7 3.4 0.8 85.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.2 17.4 17.4 8.7 13.0 8.7 13.0 13.0 4.3 4.3