Kansas
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#9
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#49
Pace73.5#81
Improvement-4.3#357

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#8
First Shot+10.9#4
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#234
Layup/Dunks+9.2#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#168
Freethrows+0.6#149
Improvement-3.8#353

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#30
First Shot+5.3#38
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#93
Layups/Dunks-0.1#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#53
Freethrows+2.0#73
Improvement-0.5#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.0% 5.4% 1.9%
#1 Seed 19.3% 20.6% 9.3%
Top 2 Seed 37.3% 39.2% 21.9%
Top 4 Seed 64.3% 66.5% 46.2%
Top 6 Seed 80.5% 82.4% 65.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.3% 96.1% 88.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.1% 95.1% 86.5%
Average Seed 3.8 3.7 4.8
.500 or above 98.4% 98.9% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 90.6% 83.0%
Conference Champion 26.8% 28.0% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.1%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 3.2%
First Round94.6% 95.6% 87.0%
Second Round78.8% 80.4% 66.2%
Sweet Sixteen51.0% 52.5% 39.6%
Elite Eight28.6% 29.6% 20.4%
Final Four15.1% 15.7% 9.9%
Championship Game7.8% 8.2% 5.1%
National Champion3.8% 4.0% 2.0%

Next Game: Iona (Neutral) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 36 - 121 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 21   Michigan St. W 87-74 61%     1 - 0 +27.0 +15.4 +10.4
  Nov 12, 2021 180   Tarleton St. W 88-62 96%     2 - 0 +22.2 +19.7 +4.0
  Nov 18, 2021 236   Stony Brook W 88-59 98%     3 - 0 +22.3 +12.8 +9.8
  Nov 25, 2021 115   North Texas W 71-59 89%     4 - 0 +15.5 +2.9 +12.8
  Nov 26, 2021 120   Dayton L 73-74 89%     4 - 1 +2.1 +2.8 -0.8
  Nov 28, 2021 111   Iona W 79-66 89%    
  Dec 03, 2021 62   St. John's W 86-77 80%    
  Dec 07, 2021 159   UTEP W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 11, 2021 127   Missouri W 81-64 95%    
  Dec 18, 2021 152   Stephen F. Austin W 86-67 96%    
  Dec 21, 2021 75   @ Colorado W 76-69 75%    
  Dec 29, 2021 136   Harvard W 83-66 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 89   TCU W 79-65 90%    
  Jan 04, 2022 34   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 11, 2022 61   Iowa St. W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 15, 2022 46   West Virginia W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 18, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 101   @ Kansas St. W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 24, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 12   Kentucky W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 01, 2022 61   @ Iowa St. W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 3   Baylor W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 07, 2022 11   @ Texas L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 12, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 14, 2022 34   Oklahoma St. W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 46   @ West Virginia W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 22, 2022 101   Kansas St. W 77-62 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 73-78 33%    
  Mar 01, 2022 89   @ TCU W 76-68 75%    
  Mar 05, 2022 11   Texas W 71-67 62%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.0 6.8 7.7 5.7 2.4 0.6 26.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 5.2 8.5 5.3 2.0 0.2 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.7 6.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.6 4.7 1.6 0.2 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.2 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.8 6.6 10.3 12.7 14.0 14.9 12.7 9.7 5.9 2.4 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 96.1% 5.7    5.0 0.7
15-3 79.3% 7.7    5.6 2.0 0.1
14-4 53.6% 6.8    3.6 2.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.3% 3.0    0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.8% 26.8 18.1 7.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.4% 100.0% 56.6% 43.4% 1.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.9% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 1.3 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.7% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1.5 5.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.7% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 2.0 4.3 4.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.1 100.0%
13-5 14.9% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.7 2.0 4.9 4.3 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.0% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.6 0.6 2.4 3.8 3.8 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-7 12.7% 99.8% 12.2% 87.7% 4.7 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 10.3% 99.2% 10.1% 89.2% 5.8 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
9-9 6.6% 97.7% 8.4% 89.3% 7.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.5%
8-10 4.8% 80.2% 4.6% 75.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 79.2%
7-11 2.9% 54.0% 4.2% 49.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 52.0%
6-12 1.5% 25.3% 2.7% 22.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 23.3%
5-13 0.7% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.1%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 95.3% 20.3% 75.0% 3.8 19.3 18.0 14.3 12.7 9.3 7.0 5.4 3.3 2.4 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 4.7 94.1%