Pre-tourney Rankings
Arizona St.
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#66
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#43
Pace69.8#135
Improvement-1.6#313

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#135
First Shot+1.3#132
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#168
Layup/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#168
Freethrows+0.4#140
Improvement-0.6#245

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#26
First Shot+7.4#14
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks+7.4#5
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#244
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement-1.1#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.3% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.3% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four25.3% n/a n/a
First Round44.1% n/a n/a
Second Round15.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen4.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.2% n/a n/a
Final Four0.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 24 - 59 - 11
Quad 35 - 014 - 11
Quad 48 - 122 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 164   Tarleton St. W 62-59 86%     1 - 0 +0.1 -16.9 +16.7
  Nov 10, 2022 224   Northern Arizona W 84-68 91%     2 - 0 +10.0 +4.4 +5.5
  Nov 13, 2022 303   @ Texas Southern L 66-67 OT 88%     2 - 1 -5.5 -13.7 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2022 60   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-59 48%     3 - 1 +13.0 -0.4 +13.5
  Nov 17, 2022 44   Michigan W 87-62 42%     4 - 1 +35.5 +23.7 +13.2
  Nov 22, 2022 210   Grambling St. W 80-49 89%     5 - 1 +26.1 +9.3 +17.4
  Nov 27, 2022 262   Alcorn St. W 76-54 93%     6 - 1 +13.5 -0.4 +14.1
  Dec 01, 2022 59   @ Colorado W 60-59 37%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +13.0 -2.6 +15.6
  Dec 04, 2022 86   Stanford W 68-64 67%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +7.8 -7.9 +15.5
  Dec 07, 2022 169   @ SMU W 75-57 71%     9 - 1 +20.7 +12.2 +10.3
  Dec 12, 2022 12   Creighton W 73-71 27%     10 - 1 +16.7 +9.1 +7.6
  Dec 18, 2022 221   San Diego W 91-67 90%     11 - 1 +18.1 +9.0 +8.8
  Dec 21, 2022 94   @ San Francisco L 60-97 51%     11 - 2 -28.9 -11.8 -15.7
  Dec 31, 2022 10   Arizona L 60-69 32%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +4.4 -8.9 +13.4
  Jan 05, 2023 62   Washington St. W 77-71 61%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +11.7 +10.8 +1.2
  Jan 08, 2023 100   Washington W 73-65 74%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +9.8 +0.2 +9.3
  Jan 12, 2023 47   @ Oregon W 90-73 33%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +30.0 +24.4 +5.9
  Jan 14, 2023 196   @ Oregon St. W 74-69 74%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +6.7 +8.9 -1.9
  Jan 19, 2023 3   UCLA L 62-74 25%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +3.6 +5.5 -3.1
  Jan 21, 2023 42   USC L 69-77 53%     15 - 5 6 - 3 -0.3 +1.5 -1.9
  Jan 26, 2023 100   @ Washington L 66-69 OT 53%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +4.7 -13.2 +18.5
  Jan 28, 2023 62   @ Washington St. L 58-75 38%     15 - 7 6 - 5 -5.4 -8.9 +3.4
  Feb 02, 2023 196   Oregon St. W 68-57 88%     16 - 7 7 - 5 +6.7 +2.1 +5.8
  Feb 04, 2023 47   Oregon L 70-75 56%     16 - 8 7 - 6 +2.0 -5.0 +7.3
  Feb 09, 2023 86   @ Stanford W 69-65 45%     17 - 8 8 - 6 +13.8 +2.7 +11.3
  Feb 11, 2023 243   @ California W 70-62 OT 82%     18 - 8 9 - 6 +6.6 -1.3 +7.9
  Feb 16, 2023 59   Colorado L 59-67 60%     18 - 9 9 - 7 -2.0 -4.5 +2.1
  Feb 18, 2023 70   Utah W 67-59 63%     19 - 9 10 - 7 +13.2 +3.0 +10.7
  Feb 25, 2023 10   @ Arizona W 89-88 16%     20 - 9 11 - 7 +20.3 +16.5 +3.7
  Mar 02, 2023 3   @ UCLA L 61-79 12%     20 - 10 11 - 8 +3.6 -0.3 +4.4
  Mar 04, 2023 42   @ USC L 65-68 31%     20 - 11 11 - 9 +10.7 +0.4 +10.2
  Mar 08, 2023 196   Oregon St. W 63-57 82%     21 - 11 +4.7 -4.8 +9.8
  Mar 09, 2023 42   USC W 77-72 41%     22 - 11 +15.7 +8.4 +7.3
  Mar 10, 2023 10   Arizona L 59-78 23%     22 - 12 -2.6 -6.8 +3.8
  Mar 15, 2023 56   Nevada L 66-67 48%    
Projected Record 22 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 58.3% 58.3% 10.7 0.1 2.0 13.7 41.1 1.4 41.7 58.3%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 58.3% 0.0% 58.3% 10.7 0.1 2.0 13.7 41.1 1.4 41.7 58.3%