Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#19
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#16
Pace64.3#281
Improvement+0.9#99

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#40
First Shot+3.2#78
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#25
Layup/Dunks+2.8#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
Freethrows+2.5#28
Improvement+0.6#103

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#23
First Shot+6.5#27
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#85
Layups/Dunks+0.8#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#43
Freethrows+2.1#40
Improvement+0.3#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 22.8% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 92.2% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 5.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round67.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen34.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight13.4% n/a n/a
Final Four5.5% n/a n/a
Championship Game2.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.8% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 6
Quad 27 - 212 - 8
Quad 34 - 016 - 8
Quad 410 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 230   Jacksonville W 71-44 95%     1 - 0 +20.6 +8.5 +16.8
  Nov 11, 2022 259   South Carolina Upstate W 84-38 97%     2 - 0 +37.8 +6.3 +30.1
  Nov 15, 2022 9   Kansas L 64-69 37%     2 - 1 +11.5 -1.5 +13.2
  Nov 18, 2022 235   Delaware W 92-58 96%     3 - 1 +27.3 +13.7 +12.9
  Nov 21, 2022 256   Bellarmine W 74-57 97%     4 - 1 +8.9 +12.0 +0.5
  Nov 24, 2022 196   Oregon St. W 54-51 91%     5 - 1 +1.7 -3.1 +5.5
  Nov 25, 2022 13   Xavier W 71-64 45%     6 - 1 +21.5 +7.2 +14.8
  Nov 27, 2022 7   Purdue L 56-75 36%     6 - 2 -2.2 -5.6 +2.0
  Nov 30, 2022 46   Ohio St. W 81-72 71%     7 - 2 +16.4 +9.7 +6.8
  Dec 03, 2022 154   Boston College W 75-59 92%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +13.9 +11.7 +4.1
  Dec 06, 2022 34   Iowa W 74-62 56%     9 - 2 +23.6 +4.1 +19.8
  Dec 10, 2022 263   Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-55 97%     10 - 2 +18.5 +9.4 +8.8
  Dec 20, 2022 84   @ Wake Forest L 70-81 63%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -1.2 -1.3 +0.3
  Dec 31, 2022 179   Florida St. W 86-67 93%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +15.4 +13.8 +2.3
  Jan 04, 2023 45   @ North Carolina St. L 60-84 49%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -10.6 -8.6 -1.6
  Jan 07, 2023 154   @ Boston College W 65-64 81%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +4.9 +0.8 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2023 67   Pittsburgh W 77-69 77%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +13.4 +3.0 +10.3
  Jan 14, 2023 50   @ Clemson L 64-72 52%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +4.6 +0.6 +3.7
  Jan 21, 2023 37   Miami (FL) W 68-66 68%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +10.3 +2.8 +7.7
  Jan 23, 2023 74   @ Virginia Tech L 75-78 60%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +7.7 +12.5 -5.0
  Jan 28, 2023 143   @ Georgia Tech W 86-43 80%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +47.5 +24.1 +27.4
  Jan 31, 2023 84   Wake Forest W 75-73 81%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +5.9 +2.5 +3.4
  Feb 04, 2023 39   North Carolina W 63-57 69%     17 - 6 8 - 4 +14.0 -1.5 +16.0
  Feb 06, 2023 37   @ Miami (FL) L 59-81 46%     17 - 7 8 - 5 -7.7 -9.5 +1.4
  Feb 11, 2023 32   @ Virginia L 62-69 OT 44%     17 - 8 8 - 6 +7.8 -0.3 +7.8
  Feb 14, 2023 149   Notre Dame W 68-64 91%     18 - 8 9 - 6 +2.3 -3.5 +6.1
  Feb 18, 2023 103   @ Syracuse W 77-55 71%     19 - 8 10 - 6 +29.5 +15.6 +16.6
  Feb 20, 2023 261   Louisville W 79-62 97%     20 - 8 11 - 6 +8.7 +13.6 -2.2
  Feb 25, 2023 74   Virginia Tech W 81-65 79%     21 - 8 12 - 6 +20.7 +15.4 +6.8
  Feb 28, 2023 45   North Carolina St. W 71-67 71%     22 - 8 13 - 6 +11.5 +6.2 +5.6
  Mar 04, 2023 39   @ North Carolina W 62-57 47%     23 - 8 14 - 6 +19.0 +1.4 +18.0
  Mar 09, 2023 67   Pittsburgh W 96-69 68%     24 - 8 +35.4 +31.1 +6.1
  Mar 10, 2023 37   Miami (FL) W 85-78 57%     25 - 8 +18.3 +18.4 +0.3
  Mar 11, 2023 32   Virginia W 59-49 55%     26 - 8 +21.8 +1.9 +21.3
  Mar 16, 2023 68   Oral Roberts W 76-71 68%    
Projected Record 27 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 19.4 39.7 29.6 7.3 0.5 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 19.4 39.7 29.6 7.3 0.5 0.0