Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#32
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#17
Pace57.0#360
Improvement-1.6#308

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#65
First Shot+5.6#37
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#265
Layup/Dunks+2.0#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
Freethrows+2.0#35
Improvement-2.6#356

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#24
First Shot+5.0#43
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#15
Layups/Dunks+3.7#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#275
Freethrows+2.4#28
Improvement+1.0#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 1.6% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 49.3% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 6.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.6% n/a n/a
Second Round54.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen20.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight8.1% n/a n/a
Final Four2.9% n/a n/a
Championship Game1.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.3% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 5
Quad 26 - 111 - 6
Quad 35 - 116 - 7
Quad 49 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 213   NC Central W 73-61 93%     1 - 0 +7.0 +13.4 -4.3
  Nov 11, 2022 343   Monmouth W 89-42 98%     2 - 0 +32.4 +22.8 +15.7
  Nov 18, 2022 14   Baylor W 86-79 40%     3 - 0 +21.4 +20.2 +1.5
  Nov 20, 2022 30   Illinois W 70-61 48%     4 - 0 +21.2 +8.3 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2022 263   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-45 96%     5 - 0 +18.5 +7.5 +13.8
  Nov 29, 2022 44   @ Michigan W 70-68 43%     6 - 0 +15.5 +12.8 +3.0
  Dec 03, 2022 179   Florida St. W 62-57 92%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +1.4 -8.0 +9.8
  Dec 06, 2022 98   James Madison W 55-50 83%     8 - 0 +6.8 -9.1 +16.6
  Dec 17, 2022 2   Houston L 61-69 34%     8 - 1 +8.1 +8.0 -1.4
  Dec 20, 2022 37   @ Miami (FL) L 64-66 40%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +12.3 -2.5 +14.7
  Dec 28, 2022 341   Albany W 66-46 98%     9 - 2 +5.6 -6.2 +14.6
  Dec 31, 2022 143   @ Georgia Tech W 74-56 76%     10 - 2 2 - 1 +22.5 +9.2 +14.5
  Jan 03, 2023 67   @ Pittsburgh L 65-68 52%     10 - 3 2 - 2 +8.4 +4.0 +4.0
  Jan 07, 2023 103   Syracuse W 73-66 83%     11 - 3 3 - 2 +8.5 +2.0 +6.8
  Jan 10, 2023 39   North Carolina W 65-58 64%     12 - 3 4 - 2 +15.0 +3.2 +12.5
  Jan 14, 2023 179   @ Florida St. W 67-58 81%     13 - 3 5 - 2 +11.3 +6.3 +6.6
  Jan 18, 2023 74   Virginia Tech W 78-68 75%     14 - 3 6 - 2 +14.7 +18.2 -1.8
  Jan 21, 2023 84   @ Wake Forest W 76-67 57%     15 - 3 7 - 2 +18.8 +12.4 +7.2
  Jan 28, 2023 154   Boston College W 76-57 90%     16 - 3 8 - 2 +16.9 +9.0 +9.2
  Jan 30, 2023 103   @ Syracuse W 67-62 66%     17 - 3 9 - 2 +12.5 +5.5 +7.7
  Feb 04, 2023 74   @ Virginia Tech L 68-74 54%     17 - 4 9 - 3 +4.7 +2.0 +2.3
  Feb 07, 2023 45   North Carolina St. W 63-50 66%     18 - 4 10 - 3 +20.5 +5.0 +18.0
  Feb 11, 2023 19   Duke W 69-62 OT 56%     19 - 4 11 - 3 +17.2 +4.1 +13.3
  Feb 15, 2023 261   @ Louisville W 61-58 90%     20 - 4 12 - 3 +0.7 -2.5 +3.7
  Feb 18, 2023 149   Notre Dame W 57-55 89%     21 - 4 13 - 3 +0.3 -9.4 +10.0
  Feb 22, 2023 154   @ Boston College L 48-63 77%     21 - 5 13 - 4 -11.1 -12.9 -0.8
  Feb 25, 2023 39   @ North Carolina L 63-71 41%     21 - 6 13 - 5 +6.0 -0.1 +5.8
  Feb 28, 2023 50   Clemson W 64-57 69%     22 - 6 14 - 5 +13.6 +4.3 +10.4
  Mar 04, 2023 261   Louisville W 75-60 96%     23 - 6 15 - 5 +6.7 +13.6 -3.6
  Mar 09, 2023 39   North Carolina W 68-59 53%     24 - 6 +20.0 +10.3 +11.0
  Mar 10, 2023 50   Clemson W 76-56 58%     25 - 6 +29.6 +17.9 +14.2
  Mar 11, 2023 19   Duke L 49-59 45%     25 - 7 +3.2 -9.4 +11.1
  Mar 16, 2023 90   Furman W 70-64 72%    
Projected Record 26 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 99.6% 99.6% 6.5 0.1 1.5 12.8 34.8 35.4 12.9 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 99.6%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 6.5 0.1 1.5 12.8 34.8 35.4 12.9 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 99.6%