Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
60 UAB 39.2%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 6 +9.2      +6.2 36 +3.0 96 71.8 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 North Texas 30.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 13 - 7 +7.6      +1.7 136 +5.9 40 53.7 363 0.0 1 0.0 1
107 Western Kentucky 16.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 8 +4.6      +3.3 88 +1.3 137 71.2 93 0.0 1 0.0 1
121 Louisiana Tech 13.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 9 +3.5      +1.2 151 +2.3 111 70.4 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
125 Florida Atlantic 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +3.1      +2.3 118 +0.8 149 68.2 177 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 Middle Tennessee 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 +2.1      +0.8 165 +1.3 135 67.7 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
148 UTEP 7.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 +1.2      -1.3 225 +2.5 109 66.8 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 Charlotte 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 11 +0.2      +1.0 158 -0.8 197 65.0 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
206 Rice 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 12 -1.5      +1.4 145 -3.0 270 69.2 134 0.0 1 0.0 1
224 Florida International 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 -2.7      -0.9 210 -1.8 234 67.1 210 0.0 1 0.0 1
249 Texas San Antonio 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 14 -3.9      -2.3 248 -1.6 227 71.4 90 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UAB 2.8 37.8 20.5 13.4 9.1 6.7 4.7 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.3
North Texas 3.4 27.5 20.1 14.7 10.8 8.1 6.4 4.7 3.3 2.4 1.3 0.7
Western Kentucky 4.6 13.7 14.2 14.0 12.3 10.9 9.4 8.1 6.3 5.4 3.6 2.1
Louisiana Tech 5.0 10.5 11.8 12.4 12.4 11.4 10.2 9.4 8.0 6.3 4.7 2.8
Florida Atlantic 5.2 9.2 11.2 11.9 11.7 11.4 10.8 9.8 8.4 7.1 5.2 3.3
Middle Tennessee 5.7 7.0 9.2 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.2 10.2 9.7 8.4 6.9 4.6
UTEP 6.1 5.2 7.5 9.1 10.2 10.8 10.9 11.1 10.8 9.8 8.5 6.1
Charlotte 6.6 3.8 5.7 7.5 8.9 10.4 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.3 10.2 8.4
Rice 7.4 2.3 3.7 5.1 6.6 8.2 9.6 11.1 12.4 13.5 14.2 13.3
Florida International 7.9 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.3 6.8 8.7 10.3 12.2 14.9 16.3 17.5
Texas San Antonio 8.3 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 5.4 7.4 9.1 11.9 14.2 18.5 23.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UAB 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.3 9.4 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.4 6.5 3.1
North Texas 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.7 4.9 6.0 7.2 9.1 9.8 10.8 10.6 10.3 9.3 6.7 4.0 1.7
Western Kentucky 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.9 5.1 6.5 7.7 8.6 9.6 9.6 9.9 8.9 8.0 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.4 0.5
Louisiana Tech 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 7.7 8.7 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.3
Florida Atlantic 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.5 4.0 5.5 6.5 8.0 9.0 9.7 9.6 9.3 8.5 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.0 6.3 7.7 8.6 9.4 9.7 9.5 8.8 7.8 6.3 5.1 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2
UTEP 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.2 7.5 8.6 9.5 9.6 9.2 9.1 8.0 6.9 5.5 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Charlotte 9 - 11 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.7 7.4 8.2 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.2 8.5 7.1 5.7 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
Rice 8 - 12 0.8 2.3 4.5 6.2 8.1 9.1 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.0 7.7 6.4 5.4 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International 7 - 13 1.3 3.4 5.8 7.6 9.3 10.3 10.6 10.3 9.4 8.1 6.9 5.4 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 14 2.1 5.1 7.4 9.7 10.7 10.8 10.5 9.9 8.4 7.1 5.6 4.3 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UAB 37.8% 29.0 7.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
North Texas 27.5% 20.1 6.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
Western Kentucky 13.7% 9.1 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 10.5% 6.9 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 9.2% 5.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 7.0% 4.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
UTEP 5.2% 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 3.8% 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rice 2.3% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida International 1.4% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UAB 39.2% 26.0% 13.2% 12   0.6 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 3.0 4.5 8.1 6.5 2.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 60.8 17.9%
North Texas 30.2% 19.5% 10.7% 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.3 3.3 6.5 5.1 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 69.8 13.3%
Western Kentucky 16.1% 11.3% 4.8% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.1 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 83.9 5.4%
Louisiana Tech 13.3% 9.5% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 86.7 4.2%
Florida Atlantic 11.6% 8.5% 3.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.3 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 88.4 3.4%
Middle Tennessee 10.1% 7.1% 3.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 89.9 3.3%
UTEP 7.1% 5.9% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 92.9 1.3%
Charlotte 5.4% 4.6% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 94.6 0.8%
Rice 3.6% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 96.4 0.4%
Florida International 2.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 97.3 0.3%
Texas San Antonio 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 98.0 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UAB 39.2% 4.0% 37.3% 18.1% 7.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
North Texas 30.2% 3.8% 28.3% 12.4% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Western Kentucky 16.1% 2.3% 15.1% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 13.3% 2.1% 12.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 11.6% 1.8% 10.7% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 10.1% 2.2% 9.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 7.1% 1.2% 6.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 5.4% 1.0% 4.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 3.6% 0.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.7% 0.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 2.1% 0.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 63.7 31.4 4.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
1st Round 98.6% 1.3 1.4 68.8 26.7 3.0 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 42.8% 0.5 57.2 37.4 5.2 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.4% 0.2 83.6 15.7 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 6.0% 0.1 94.0 5.9 0.1 0.0
Final Four 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
Final Game 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Champion 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4