Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#107
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.2#93
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#88
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.1% 20.4% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.4% 7.8% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.4 12.6
.500 or above 68.6% 79.5% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 78.2% 56.9%
Conference Champion 13.7% 17.4% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.9% 6.4%
First Four2.3% 2.8% 1.4%
First Round15.1% 19.1% 7.7%
Second Round4.9% 6.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 36 - 48 - 10
Quad 48 - 116 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 219   @ Eastern Kentucky W 81-77 64%    
  Nov 21, 2022 119   Akron W 68-67 53%    
  Nov 26, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 90-64 99%    
  Nov 30, 2022 254   @ Austin Peay W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 10, 2022 171   Wright St. W 81-73 74%    
  Dec 14, 2022 73   @ Louisville L 69-76 29%    
  Dec 22, 2022 87   @ South Carolina L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 29, 2022 206   Rice W 81-72 77%    
  Dec 31, 2022 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 05, 2023 79   North Texas L 62-63 50%    
  Jan 07, 2023 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 78-72 67%    
  Jan 11, 2023 60   @ UAB L 73-81 27%    
  Jan 14, 2023 224   Florida International W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 16, 2023 125   Florida Atlantic W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 19, 2023 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 21, 2023 164   Charlotte W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 26, 2023 224   @ Florida International W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 28, 2023 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 02, 2023 249   Texas San Antonio W 81-69 82%    
  Feb 04, 2023 148   UTEP W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 09, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 16, 2023 164   @ Charlotte W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 18, 2023 206   @ Rice W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 23, 2023 121   Louisiana Tech W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 60   UAB L 76-78 45%    
  Mar 02, 2023 148   @ UTEP W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 79   @ North Texas L 60-66 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.1 3.4 2.7 1.4 0.5 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 4.4 3.0 1.2 0.2 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.6 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.6 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.6 1.6 0.2 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.9 5.1 6.5 7.7 8.6 9.6 9.6 9.9 8.9 8.0 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.4 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 92.9% 2.7    2.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 74.3% 3.4    2.4 1.0 0.1
16-4 47.9% 3.1    1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 22.1% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 9.1 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 98.8% 51.0% 47.8% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
19-1 1.4% 92.4% 47.9% 44.4% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 85.4%
18-2 3.0% 74.2% 37.0% 37.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 59.0%
17-3 4.6% 55.7% 29.1% 26.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 37.6%
16-4 6.5% 37.9% 23.9% 14.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 18.5%
15-5 8.0% 23.8% 17.8% 6.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 6.1 7.2%
14-6 8.9% 16.0% 14.1% 1.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.5 2.2%
13-7 9.9% 11.6% 11.2% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.7 0.5%
12-8 9.6% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.7 0.0%
11-9 9.6% 6.9% 6.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.0
10-10 8.6% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.1
9-11 7.7% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.4
8-12 6.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.3
7-13 5.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.0
6-14 3.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-15 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.7
4-16 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.1% 11.3% 4.8% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.1 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 83.9 5.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 18.0 35.2 25.4 12.6 6.0 2.7