Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#90
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#248
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#227
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 15.2
.500 or above 26.5% 33.5% 9.7%
.500 or above in Conference 18.3% 22.5% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 31.6% 25.8% 45.6%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 344   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-70 71%    
  Nov 17, 2022 168   Texas St. L 67-68 47%    
  Nov 22, 2022 285   Prairie View W 78-72 71%    
  Nov 25, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 77-68 77%    
  Nov 27, 2022 257   Dartmouth W 70-66 63%    
  Nov 28, 2022 348   Incarnate Word W 77-64 85%    
  Dec 10, 2022 110   @ New Mexico L 74-85 19%    
  Dec 13, 2022 84   @ Utah L 65-79 13%    
  Dec 18, 2022 353   Bethune-Cookman W 78-63 90%    
  Dec 22, 2022 79   North Texas L 57-66 24%    
  Dec 29, 2022 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-78 20%    
  Dec 31, 2022 60   @ UAB L 68-84 10%    
  Jan 05, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 07, 2023 107   Western Kentucky L 72-78 33%    
  Jan 11, 2023 148   @ UTEP L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 14, 2023 164   @ Charlotte L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 16, 2023 206   Rice W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 19, 2023 125   Florida Atlantic L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 224   Florida International W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 26, 2023 79   @ North Texas L 54-69 13%    
  Jan 28, 2023 121   Louisiana Tech L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 02, 2023 107   @ Western Kentucky L 69-81 18%    
  Feb 04, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-76 24%    
  Feb 11, 2023 148   UTEP L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 16, 2023 206   @ Rice L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 18, 2023 60   UAB L 71-81 22%    
  Feb 23, 2023 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-78 22%    
  Feb 25, 2023 224   @ Florida International L 70-74 37%    
  Mar 02, 2023 164   Charlotte L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.3 0.7 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 2.6 0.7 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.1 4.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.8 5.9 4.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 2.1 4.9 6.3 5.7 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 23.5 11th
Total 2.1 5.1 7.4 9.7 10.7 10.8 10.5 9.9 8.4 7.1 5.6 4.3 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 80.8% 0.2    0.2 0.1
16-4 50.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 70.0% 30.0% 40.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.1%
18-2 0.1% 56.3% 18.8% 37.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.2%
17-3 0.2% 36.7% 22.2% 14.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 18.6%
16-4 0.4% 27.8% 22.5% 5.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.9%
15-5 0.9% 16.9% 14.3% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1%
14-6 1.4% 9.1% 8.4% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.8%
13-7 2.1% 10.1% 10.1% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
12-8 3.2% 6.0% 6.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
11-9 4.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.1
10-10 5.6% 3.8% 3.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
9-11 7.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9
8-12 8.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2
7-13 9.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.8
6-14 10.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.4
5-15 10.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.7
4-16 10.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-17 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
2-18 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.4
1-19 5.1% 5.1
0-20 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 98.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%