Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
187 Morehead St. 42.6%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 14 - 4 -0.5      -2.1 243 +1.6 128 63.3 315 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 Arkansas Little Rock 16.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 -5.3      -2.3 249 -3.0 272 67.1 209 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 Tennessee St. 13.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 11 - 7 -6.2      -2.6 255 -3.6 289 68.9 152 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Southeast Missouri St. 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -6.9      -1.3 227 -5.6 328 77.9 15 0.0 1 0.0 1
305 Tennessee Tech 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 8 -8.4      -3.0 262 -5.4 325 72.9 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
326 SIU Edwardsville 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -10.3      -5.9 325 -4.4 303 71.0 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
330 Eastern Illinois 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -10.9      -5.2 314 -5.7 330 63.8 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
339 Southern Indiana 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -12.2      -6.8 339 -5.4 324 68.3 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
352 Tennessee Martin 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 20 5 - 13 -15.7      -6.2 330 -9.5 358 71.7 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
355 Lindenwood 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 13 -16.8      -7.7 348 -9.1 357 68.3 174 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Morehead St. 2.2 49.0 20.8 12.1 7.6 4.5 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.2
Arkansas Little Rock 3.7 19.3 18.7 16.2 13.3 10.5 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.4 1.0
Tennessee St. 4.0 15.4 17.2 15.6 13.9 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 3.1 1.6
Southeast Missouri St. 4.2 13.2 15.6 15.2 14.1 12.3 10.2 7.9 5.9 3.7 1.9
Tennessee Tech 4.8 8.9 12.1 13.4 13.3 12.9 11.8 10.5 8.1 5.9 3.1
SIU Edwardsville 5.6 5.4 8.3 10.3 11.8 12.8 13.1 12.3 11.6 9.0 5.6
Eastern Illinois 5.9 4.3 6.9 9.2 10.9 12.6 13.2 13.4 12.6 10.2 6.8
Southern Indiana 6.4 2.9 5.1 7.2 9.4 10.8 12.9 13.9 14.5 13.6 9.6
Tennessee Martin 7.6 0.8 1.7 3.2 4.8 6.7 9.5 12.5 16.5 20.9 23.3
Lindenwood 8.0 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.5 5.6 8.1 11.5 15.3 22.2 29.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Morehead St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.3 5.0 7.1 9.2 11.5 13.4 14.5 13.9 10.8 6.1
Arkansas Little Rock 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.3 6.8 8.3 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.1 9.9 7.9 5.5 3.2 1.1
Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.2 7.6 9.2 10.5 11.3 10.7 10.3 8.9 6.8 4.2 2.3 0.8
Southeast Missouri St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.6 5.2 6.8 8.7 9.7 10.8 11.1 10.8 9.5 7.7 5.7 3.6 1.8 0.5
Tennessee Tech 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.6 5.3 7.1 8.8 9.7 10.5 10.7 10.2 9.3 7.8 5.7 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.3
SIU Edwardsville 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.7 7.8 9.2 10.0 10.7 10.7 9.6 8.8 6.8 5.5 3.7 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1
Eastern Illinois 8 - 10 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.5 6.9 8.3 9.9 10.7 10.7 10.6 9.4 7.8 6.2 4.5 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
Southern Indiana 7 - 11 0.7 2.0 3.9 6.5 8.6 9.9 10.7 10.9 10.9 9.3 7.9 6.6 4.8 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Martin 5 - 13 2.8 6.3 9.4 11.4 12.6 12.5 11.0 9.3 7.8 5.7 4.3 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lindenwood 5 - 13 3.8 8.1 11.8 13.1 13.2 11.9 10.3 8.5 6.5 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Morehead St. 49.0% 38.2 9.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 19.3% 12.9 5.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 15.4% 10.1 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 13.2% 8.5 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 8.9% 5.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 5.4% 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 4.3% 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Morehead St. 42.6% 42.6% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.9 10.2 11.2 12.0 57.4 0.1%
Arkansas Little Rock 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.4 7.6 84.0 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 6.5 86.9 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 5.9 88.6 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 4.5 92.3 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 3.1 95.4 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.6 96.2 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Morehead St. 42.6% 6.1% 39.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 16.0% 4.5% 13.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.1% 3.8% 11.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.4% 3.8% 9.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 7.7% 2.9% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 4.6% 2.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 85.6% 0.9 14.4 85.6 0.0
2nd Round 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0