IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.3	#326
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.0	#97
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.9	#325

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#303

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.6%	10.3%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.2	15.6

.500 or above	26.2%	57.0%	21.6%
.500 or above in Conference	49.1%	72.8%	45.6%
Conference Champion	5.4%	13.1%	4.2%
Last Place in Conference	9.1%	2.9%	10.0%

First Four	2.2%	3.0%	2.0%
First Round	3.4%	8.6%	2.6%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 10	12 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2022	197	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	67-79	13%
Nov 15, 2022	70	@ Missouri	L	60-82	3%
Nov 18, 2022	319	Fairleigh Dickinson	L	77-78	48%
Nov 19, 2022	272	VMI	L	74-78	36%
Nov 20, 2022	152	@ Longwood	L	64-78	12%
Nov 26, 2022	289	@ UMKC	L	67-73	32%
Dec 03, 2022	235	Troy	L	68-72	36%
Dec 06, 2022	117	Bradley	L	66-77	19%
Dec 10, 2022	180	@ Illinois St.	L	67-80	14%
Dec 16, 2022	362	Chicago St.	W	78-63	88%
Dec 21, 2022	45	@ Saint Louis	L	61-85	3%
Dec 29, 2022	305	Tennessee Tech	W	76-75	53%
Dec 31, 2022	281	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	76-82	31%
Jan 05, 2023	276	Tennessee St.	L	72-73	46%
Jan 07, 2023	339	@ Southern Indiana	L	70-71	47%
Jan 12, 2023	330	@ Eastern Illinois	L	68-70	43%
Jan 14, 2023	355	Lindenwood	W	77-67	78%
Jan 19, 2023	187	Morehead St.	L	64-71	30%
Jan 21, 2023	339	Southern Indiana	W	73-68	65%
Jan 26, 2023	305	@ Tennessee Tech	L	73-78	35%
Jan 28, 2023	187	@ Morehead St.	L	61-74	16%
Feb 02, 2023	352	Tennessee Martin	W	79-71	75%
Feb 04, 2023	261	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	67-75	27%
Feb 09, 2023	355	@ Lindenwood	W	74-70	61%
Feb 11, 2023	330	Eastern Illinois	W	71-67	61%
Feb 16, 2023	352	@ Tennessee Martin	W	76-74	57%
Feb 18, 2023	276	@ Tennessee St.	L	69-76	29%
Feb 23, 2023	261	Arkansas Little Rock	L	70-72	44%
Feb 25, 2023	281	Southeast Missouri St.	L	78-79	49%
Projected Record						12 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.1		5.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.6	1.8	2.9	2.1	0.7	0.1				8.3	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.2	3.3	3.6	1.8	0.3	0.0					10.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.0	4.3	3.8	1.2	0.1							11.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.6	5.3	3.5	0.9	0.0								12.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	3.4	5.3	3.0	0.6	0.0									13.1	6th
7th					0.1	1.1	3.8	4.6	2.3	0.4	0.0										12.3	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	1.7	4.1	3.8	1.5	0.2	0.0											11.6	8th
9th		0.0	0.6	2.1	3.0	2.3	0.8	0.1													9.0	9th
10th	0.3	1.0	1.6	1.5	0.9	0.3	0.0														5.6	10th

Total	0.3	1.1	2.2	3.9	5.7	7.8	9.2	10.0	10.7	10.7	9.6	8.8	6.8	5.5	3.7	2.3	1.0	0.5	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-2	89.4%	0.9		0.8	0.2
15-3	69.4%	1.6		0.9	0.6	0.1
14-4	35.5%	1.3		0.5	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.4%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	2.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.4%	5.4		3.1	1.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		63.3%	63.3%		13.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
17-1	0.5%		47.3%	47.3%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3
16-2	1.0%		37.2%	37.2%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.7
15-3	2.3%		26.1%	26.1%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.7
14-4	3.7%		17.7%	17.7%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	3.0
13-5	5.5%		13.2%	13.2%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	4.8
12-6	6.8%		9.5%	9.5%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.6	6.1
11-7	8.8%		5.2%	5.2%		15.9																0.0	0.4	8.3
10-8	9.6%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.3
9-9	10.7%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.5
8-10	10.7%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
7-11	10.0%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	9.9
6-12	9.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
5-13	7.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.8
4-14	5.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
3-15	3.9%																							3.9
2-16	2.2%																							2.2
1-17	1.1%																							1.1
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		4.6%	4.6%	0.0%	15.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	3.1	95.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%