Preseason Rankings
Southeastern
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Kentucky 88.3%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +18.7      +11.1 4 +7.6 19 69.2 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
10 Tennessee 81.4%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +17.0      +7.3 25 +9.7 5 68.6 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
11 Arkansas 80.9%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +16.6      +7.6 22 +9.0 8 75.4 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
21 Auburn 70.5%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +14.1      +7.5 24 +6.6 32 74.3 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 Alabama 65.3%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +13.8      +9.2 10 +4.7 61 78.3 11 0.0 1 0.0 1
30 Florida 55.0%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +12.5      +6.5 29 +6.0 37 64.9 267 0.0 1 0.0 1
39 Texas A&M 49.8%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +11.6      +5.0 55 +6.6 30 67.0 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
47 LSU 42.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 8 - 10 +10.7      +5.0 52 +5.7 45 71.4 91 0.0 1 0.0 1
58 Mississippi 34.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +9.6      +4.3 68 +5.3 48 64.5 279 0.0 1 0.0 1
64 Mississippi St. 28.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +8.9      +4.0 76 +4.8 59 64.9 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
70 Missouri 25.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +8.2      +4.9 58 +3.3 91 65.3 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Vanderbilt 28.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 11 +8.2      +3.8 81 +4.4 68 68.8 155 0.0 1 0.0 1
87 South Carolina 18.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 +6.8      +2.1 126 +4.7 60 75.3 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
106 Georgia 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 5 - 13 +4.7      +5.0 56 -0.3 179 71.1 96 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kentucky 3.4 33.6 17.8 12.7 9.5 7.1 5.7 4.1 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2
Tennessee 4.2 22.6 16.7 12.8 10.6 8.6 7.3 5.7 4.4 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5
Arkansas 4.5 19.2 15.3 13.1 10.8 9.3 7.5 6.4 5.1 4.3 3.1 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.6
Auburn 5.6 11.5 11.9 11.2 10.5 9.3 8.8 7.9 6.9 6.0 4.7 4.0 3.3 2.4 1.5
Alabama 5.9 9.5 10.6 10.3 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.3 7.2 6.5 5.6 4.8 3.9 2.8 1.6
Florida 6.4 7.9 8.7 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.3 8.4 7.8 7.4 6.5 5.4 4.4 3.6 2.1
Texas A&M 7.1 5.5 6.9 7.7 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.0 6.3 5.3 3.5
LSU 7.7 4.1 5.7 6.3 7.1 7.3 8.3 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.2 7.2 6.5 4.7
Mississippi 7.7 3.9 5.3 6.4 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.9 8.6 8.4 7.7 7.4 6.4 5.3
Mississippi St. 8.5 2.6 3.7 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.3 7.7 8.6 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.2 8.8 7.3
Missouri 8.9 1.9 3.2 4.1 5.1 5.6 6.8 7.4 8.4 9.0 9.7 9.7 10.5 10.0 8.7
Vanderbilt 9.2 1.7 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.0 7.1 7.8 8.7 9.4 10.4 11.2 11.3 10.2
South Carolina 9.4 1.3 2.3 3.1 4.2 4.9 6.2 6.8 7.9 8.6 9.4 10.5 11.2 11.3 12.2
Georgia 10.7 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.6 7.6 9.1 11.2 13.6 16.7 20.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kentucky 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.0 7.2 8.7 10.7 12.1 13.0 12.6 10.8 7.5 3.6
Tennessee 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.7 3.8 5.3 7.2 8.7 10.2 11.6 12.0 11.5 10.0 7.4 4.8 1.7
Arkansas 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.5 6.1 7.9 9.4 10.9 11.4 11.9 10.5 9.1 6.2 3.7 1.3
Auburn 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.5 8.3 9.8 10.6 10.9 10.5 9.7 8.1 6.0 3.8 1.9 0.6
Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.4 8.8 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.2 9.0 7.0 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.4
Florida 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.1 6.6 8.5 9.8 10.5 10.7 10.9 9.2 7.9 6.2 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.2
Texas A&M 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.0 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.1 9.3 7.9 6.4 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.2
LSU 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.2 6.1 7.8 9.1 10.3 10.8 10.5 9.5 8.2 6.6 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1
Mississippi 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.0 7.7 9.3 10.4 10.7 10.4 9.5 8.4 6.6 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1
Mississippi St. 8 - 10 0.7 2.1 3.8 5.7 7.6 9.5 10.3 10.8 10.6 9.7 8.2 7.1 5.4 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Missouri 7 - 11 0.8 2.3 4.5 6.8 8.9 10.3 11.0 11.0 10.4 9.1 7.5 5.9 4.7 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Vanderbilt 7 - 11 0.9 3.1 5.4 7.7 9.9 10.6 11.0 10.7 9.9 8.6 6.9 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 7 - 11 1.2 3.5 5.6 8.1 10.0 10.9 11.5 10.6 9.5 8.7 6.7 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia 5 - 13 2.6 6.3 9.7 12.2 12.9 12.5 11.4 9.4 7.6 5.6 3.9 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 33.6% 23.8 7.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 22.6% 14.8 6.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 19.2% 12.2 5.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Auburn 11.5% 6.8 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama 9.5% 5.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida 7.9% 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 5.5% 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 4.1% 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mississippi 3.9% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 88.3% 18.0% 70.3% 1   22.1 15.7 11.3 8.8 7.4 5.9 5.1 4.2 3.0 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.7 85.7%
Tennessee 81.4% 13.8% 67.6% 3   14.2 12.5 10.3 8.7 7.5 6.8 6.0 5.2 3.8 3.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 18.6 78.4%
Arkansas 80.9% 13.3% 67.6% 3   14.1 12.4 10.1 9.0 7.8 6.4 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 19.1 77.9%
Auburn 70.5% 9.2% 61.3% 4   8.6 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.7 6.0 5.0 4.4 3.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 29.5 67.5%
Alabama 65.3% 8.7% 56.7% 4   7.6 8.2 7.5 7.4 6.9 6.3 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.2 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 34.7 62.0%
Florida 55.0% 7.0% 48.0% 7   3.7 4.7 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 45.0 51.6%
Texas A&M 49.8% 6.1% 43.6% 8   2.7 3.7 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 50.2 46.5%
LSU 42.2% 5.0% 37.2% 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 57.8 39.2%
Mississippi 34.3% 4.2% 30.0% 1.1 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 65.7 31.4%
Mississippi St. 28.0% 3.7% 24.3% 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 72.0 25.2%
Missouri 25.4% 3.4% 22.0% 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 74.6 22.8%
Vanderbilt 28.0% 3.1% 24.9% 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 72.0 25.7%
South Carolina 18.9% 2.5% 16.4% 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 81.1 16.8%
Georgia 10.6% 1.8% 8.8% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 89.4 9.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kentucky 88.3% 1.8% 87.5% 74.2% 49.7% 30.5% 17.9% 10.1% 5.8%
Tennessee 81.4% 2.5% 80.2% 64.2% 40.0% 22.9% 12.4% 6.8% 3.5%
Arkansas 80.9% 2.7% 79.6% 63.3% 39.2% 21.8% 11.7% 6.1% 3.2%
Auburn 70.5% 3.6% 68.7% 50.6% 27.9% 13.9% 6.7% 3.2% 1.5%
Alabama 65.3% 4.2% 63.4% 46.9% 26.0% 13.2% 6.3% 3.0% 1.4%
Florida 55.0% 4.0% 53.1% 36.6% 18.5% 8.7% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8%
Texas A&M 49.8% 4.2% 47.8% 31.6% 15.2% 6.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6%
LSU 42.2% 3.8% 40.3% 25.1% 11.4% 5.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%
Mississippi 34.3% 3.8% 32.4% 19.7% 8.3% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Mississippi St. 28.0% 3.1% 26.4% 15.6% 6.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Missouri 25.4% 3.0% 24.0% 13.9% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Vanderbilt 28.0% 3.2% 26.4% 15.2% 5.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
South Carolina 18.9% 2.9% 17.5% 9.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Georgia 10.6% 2.0% 9.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.1 12.2 25.9 29.6 19.5 7.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.3 15.2 28.0 28.6 16.6 5.5 1.1 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.6 3.9 13.8 25.6 28.8 18.6 7.0 1.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.2% 2.6 2.8 14.8 30.7 30.4 16.0 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 81.4% 1.4 18.6 40.2 29.9 9.8 1.5 0.1 0.0
Final Four 55.5% 0.7 44.5 42.6 11.9 1.0 0.0
Final Game 32.8% 0.4 67.2 30.2 2.6
Champion 18.0% 0.2 82.0 18.0