Preseason Rankings
Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#64
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#266
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.2% 5.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 10.0% 10.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 28.2% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.2% 25.4% 3.0%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 10.2
.500 or above 67.0% 67.5% 17.9%
.500 or above in Conference 38.9% 39.2% 7.8%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 12.0% 32.5%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 0.7%
First Round26.4% 26.7% 3.9%
Second Round15.6% 15.8% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen6.3% 6.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.7% 0.2%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 46 - 12
Quad 34 - 110 - 13
Quad 46 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 344   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 11, 2022 119   Akron W 66-61 68%    
  Nov 13, 2022 360   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-51 99.7%   
  Nov 17, 2022 135   South Dakota W 75-65 80%    
  Nov 21, 2022 63   Marquette L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 28, 2022 307   Nebraska Omaha W 84-63 96%    
  Dec 03, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 90-54 99.8%   
  Dec 11, 2022 90   @ Minnesota L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 14, 2022 308   @ Jackson St. W 70-55 88%    
  Dec 17, 2022 220   Nicholls St. W 79-65 88%    
  Dec 20, 2022 74   Drake W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 28, 2022 22   Alabama L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 03, 2023 10   @ Tennessee L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 07, 2023 58   Mississippi W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 11, 2023 106   @ Georgia W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 14, 2023 21   @ Auburn L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 17, 2023 10   Tennessee L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 21, 2023 30   Florida L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 25, 2023 22   @ Alabama L 72-80 26%    
  Jan 28, 2023 19   TCU L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 31, 2023 87   @ South Carolina L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 04, 2023 70   Missouri W 70-66 61%    
  Feb 08, 2023 47   LSU W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 11   @ Arkansas L 66-77 20%    
  Feb 15, 2023 3   Kentucky L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 18, 2023 58   @ Mississippi L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 21, 2023 70   @ Missouri L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 25, 2023 39   Texas A&M W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 28, 2023 87   South Carolina W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 04, 2023 72   @ Vanderbilt L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.0 0.4 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.7 1.2 0.1 9.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.9 1.3 0.1 8.8 13th
14th 0.7 1.8 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.3 14th
Total 0.7 2.1 3.8 5.7 7.6 9.5 10.3 10.8 10.6 9.7 8.2 7.1 5.4 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 85.1% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 58.7% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.5% 99.7% 12.2% 87.5% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 3.7% 97.4% 10.5% 86.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.1%
12-6 5.4% 89.6% 7.3% 82.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 88.8%
11-7 7.1% 74.7% 6.4% 68.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 73.0%
10-8 8.2% 53.4% 4.9% 48.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.8 51.0%
9-9 9.7% 31.2% 3.8% 27.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 28.5%
8-10 10.6% 11.1% 3.0% 8.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 8.4%
7-11 10.8% 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.4 1.2%
6-12 10.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1 0.1%
5-13 9.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
4-14 7.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.5
3-15 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.7
2-16 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.8
1-17 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 28.0% 3.7% 24.3% 7.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 72.0 25.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.1 7.9