Preseason Rankings
Southern
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
96 Furman 32.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 13 - 5 +6.0      +5.0 54 +1.0 144 64.0 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 Chattanooga 17.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +2.8      +1.6 140 +1.2 139 62.9 322 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 UNC Greensboro 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +1.7      -0.4 194 +2.2 117 59.0 352 0.0 1 0.0 1
172 Samford 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -0.2      +2.9 102 -3.1 273 72.8 66 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Wofford 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -0.4      +0.3 175 -0.7 192 62.5 329 0.0 1 0.0 1
189 East Tennessee St. 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 -0.6      +1.3 148 -1.9 237 64.6 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 Mercer 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.2      -0.1 182 -1.1 205 63.8 305 0.0 1 0.0 1
265 The Citadel 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 -5.5      -0.9 209 -4.6 308 74.9 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 Western Carolina 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 12 -5.7      -1.2 222 -4.5 305 70.9 100 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 VMI 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -5.9      -0.5 195 -5.4 323 71.2 95 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 2.6 40.3 20.5 13.4 9.1 6.2 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.5
Chattanooga 3.7 20.7 18.1 15.3 12.4 10.0 8.3 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.7
UNC Greensboro 4.1 16.6 16.1 14.5 13.1 11.2 9.2 7.4 5.6 4.1 2.2
Samford 4.9 10.2 12.1 12.4 12.2 12.1 11.2 10.1 8.6 6.5 4.4
Wofford 5.0 10.1 11.7 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.4 10.1 8.7 7.1 4.6
East Tennessee St. 5.1 8.9 11.1 11.9 12.4 12.2 11.6 10.7 9.0 7.5 4.8
Mercer 5.3 7.8 9.7 11.0 11.9 12.1 11.9 11.3 10.2 8.2 5.9
The Citadel 7.1 2.0 3.5 4.9 6.7 8.4 10.6 13.0 15.3 17.6 18.1
Western Carolina 7.2 1.9 3.4 4.7 6.3 8.3 10.6 12.4 15.3 17.4 19.6
VMI 7.2 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.1 7.9 10.1 12.9 14.9 18.3 20.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.8 5.0 6.7 9.1 10.6 11.9 12.7 12.4 10.7 7.9 3.5
Chattanooga 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.5 7.1 8.4 9.9 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.4 7.8 5.3 3.0 1.0
UNC Greensboro 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.5 4.9 6.6 8.1 9.7 10.4 10.7 10.6 9.6 8.0 6.2 4.2 2.2 0.7
Samford 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.8 7.5 8.5 9.8 10.3 10.1 10.1 8.8 7.4 5.6 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.2
Wofford 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.3 5.9 7.5 8.7 9.7 10.5 10.3 9.8 8.6 7.2 5.5 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.3
East Tennessee St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.8 9.3 9.9 10.6 10.4 9.5 8.3 7.0 5.0 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3
Mercer 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.2 6.8 8.4 9.5 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.0 7.7 6.2 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2
The Citadel 6 - 12 1.6 4.1 6.7 8.9 10.7 11.4 11.6 10.3 9.3 7.6 6.1 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 6 - 12 1.7 4.4 7.3 9.2 10.7 11.5 11.4 10.2 9.2 7.4 5.8 4.1 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
VMI 6 - 12 1.8 4.5 7.5 9.6 11.3 11.9 11.2 10.1 8.8 7.1 5.6 4.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 40.3% 30.7 7.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 20.7% 14.4 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 16.6% 11.3 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Samford 10.2% 6.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wofford 10.1% 6.3 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St. 8.9% 5.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mercer 7.8% 4.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 2.0% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 1.9% 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 1.8% 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 32.9% 29.4% 3.4% 12   0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.8 5.5 8.2 6.2 3.5 1.7 0.9 67.2 4.9%
Chattanooga 17.6% 16.0% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 2.3 4.0 3.8 2.5 1.6 1.3 82.4 1.9%
UNC Greensboro 14.9% 13.7% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.9 3.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 1.3 85.1 1.4%
Samford 9.3% 8.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 90.7 0.5%
Wofford 9.3% 8.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.5 90.7 0.6%
East Tennessee St. 8.6% 8.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 91.4 0.5%
Mercer 7.8% 7.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 92.2 0.4%
The Citadel 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 97.1 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 97.5 0.0%
VMI 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 97.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 32.9% 1.9% 31.9% 9.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Chattanooga 17.6% 1.6% 16.9% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 14.9% 1.5% 14.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 9.3% 1.2% 8.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 9.3% 1.4% 8.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 8.6% 1.1% 8.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 7.8% 1.2% 7.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 2.9% 0.8% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.5% 0.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 2.4% 0.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.0 7.8 0.2
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 90.7 5.7 0.1
2nd Round 19.9% 0.2 80.1 19.4 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.0 0.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0