Preseason Rankings
Furman
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#96
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#298
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 3.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.9% 38.3% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.9% 7.0% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.5 11.2 12.9
.500 or above 90.8% 95.6% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 94.0% 82.8%
Conference Champion 40.3% 46.4% 26.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 2.0%
First Four1.9% 2.2% 1.3%
First Round31.9% 37.2% 20.2%
Second Round9.4% 12.0% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 4.3% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 6
Quad 411 - 218 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 115   Belmont W 76-71 69%    
  Nov 17, 2022 66   Penn St. L 63-66 41%    
  Nov 29, 2022 183   @ Appalachian St. W 68-65 61%    
  Dec 03, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 88-61 99%    
  Dec 06, 2022 255   High Point W 76-62 87%    
  Dec 10, 2022 174   Winthrop W 77-68 78%    
  Dec 13, 2022 69   @ North Carolina St. L 70-75 33%    
  Dec 17, 2022 166   Stephen F. Austin W 76-67 76%    
  Dec 29, 2022 272   VMI W 82-67 89%    
  Dec 31, 2022 268   @ Western Carolina W 78-69 76%    
  Jan 04, 2023 265   The Citadel W 83-69 88%    
  Jan 07, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. W 72-68 61%    
  Jan 11, 2023 198   @ Mercer W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 14, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 18, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 21, 2023 181   @ Wofford W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 25, 2023 172   Samford W 80-71 76%    
  Jan 29, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 01, 2023 130   Chattanooga W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 181   Wofford W 73-64 76%    
  Feb 08, 2023 272   @ VMI W 79-70 76%    
  Feb 11, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 81-66 88%    
  Feb 15, 2023 265   @ The Citadel W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 19, 2023 189   East Tennessee St. W 75-65 78%    
  Feb 22, 2023 198   Mercer W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 25, 2023 172   @ Samford W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 6.2 9.6 10.0 7.9 3.5 40.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.7 6.5 5.8 2.8 0.7 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 6.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.8 5.0 6.7 9.1 10.6 11.9 12.7 12.4 10.7 7.9 3.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
17-1 100.0% 7.9    7.7 0.2
16-2 93.8% 10.0    8.7 1.2 0.0
15-3 77.4% 9.6    6.8 2.7 0.2
14-4 48.6% 6.2    3.2 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 20.8% 2.5    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1
12-6 5.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.3% 40.3 30.7 7.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.5% 90.3% 69.2% 21.1% 6.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 68.5%
17-1 7.9% 75.2% 58.4% 16.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.0 40.3%
16-2 10.7% 57.7% 49.2% 8.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5 16.7%
15-3 12.4% 43.0% 40.0% 3.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 5.0%
14-4 12.7% 33.2% 32.6% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.9%
13-5 11.9% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.9 0.2%
12-6 10.6% 20.9% 20.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 8.4
11-7 9.1% 14.5% 14.5% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 7.8
10-8 6.7% 10.9% 10.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.0
9-9 5.0% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.6
8-10 3.8% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5
7-11 2.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
6-12 1.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 1.5
5-13 0.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.9% 29.4% 3.4% 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.8 5.5 8.2 6.2 3.5 1.7 0.9 67.2 4.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 98.7% 3.7 6.3 16.3 23.4 25.8 14.4 8.5 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.3