Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#198
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#305
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 12.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 12.8 14.2
.500 or above 45.4% 66.3% 32.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.2% 68.1% 44.3%
Conference Champion 7.8% 12.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 4.3% 12.6%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
First Round7.2% 11.5% 4.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 49 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 192   @ East Carolina L 68-71 38%    
  Nov 15, 2022 169   @ Georgia St. L 67-71 35%    
  Nov 19, 2022 174   Winthrop W 72-70 57%    
  Nov 21, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 63-78 10%    
  Nov 25, 2022 277   Robert Morris W 73-68 66%    
  Nov 26, 2022 222   Fairfield W 65-64 54%    
  Nov 27, 2022 118   Towson L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 02, 2022 242   Kennesaw St. W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 10, 2022 203   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-76 41%    
  Dec 17, 2022 187   Morehead St. W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 21, 2022 235   @ Troy L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 28, 2022 172   @ Samford L 72-76 37%    
  Dec 31, 2022 130   Chattanooga L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 04, 2023 181   Wofford W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 07, 2023 268   @ Western Carolina W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 11, 2023 96   Furman L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 14, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-71 39%    
  Jan 19, 2023 272   @ VMI W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 21, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-66 32%    
  Jan 25, 2023 189   East Tennessee St. W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 28, 2023 265   @ The Citadel W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 02, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro W 64-63 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 272   VMI W 77-69 73%    
  Feb 08, 2023 172   Samford W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 15, 2023 181   @ Wofford L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 18, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 76-68 72%    
  Feb 22, 2023 96   @ Furman L 64-74 21%    
  Feb 25, 2023 265   The Citadel W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 4.7 3.8 1.1 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.9 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.2 6.8 8.4 9.5 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.0 7.7 6.2 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 93.8% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 73.5% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.1
14-4 42.1% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 82.5% 56.6% 25.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.8%
17-1 0.7% 59.4% 43.3% 16.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 28.5%
16-2 1.6% 44.8% 37.0% 7.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 12.5%
15-3 2.8% 28.4% 25.9% 2.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.4%
14-4 4.3% 22.4% 21.9% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.7%
13-5 6.2% 17.2% 17.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.1 0.1%
12-6 7.7% 11.1% 11.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.9
11-7 9.0% 9.2% 9.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.2
10-8 10.2% 6.8% 6.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.5
9-9 10.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10.1
8-10 10.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.0
7-11 9.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
6-12 8.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.3
5-13 6.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-14 5.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-15 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.8% 7.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 92.2 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.8 42.3 38.5 19.2
Lose Out 0.1%