Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 Oral Roberts 31.8%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 14 - 4 +3.5      +6.3 35 -2.8 266 74.6 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
134 South Dakota St. 25.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 5 +2.2      +5.0 57 -2.7 260 73.3 56 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 South Dakota 24.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 13 - 5 +2.2      +3.9 77 -1.7 232 65.5 257 0.0 1 0.0 1
216 North Dakota St. 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -2.0      -1.2 223 -0.7 194 66.6 224 0.0 1 0.0 1
288 Western Illinois 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 8 - 10 -7.6      -2.7 257 -5.0 315 75.0 32 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 UMKC 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -7.7      -5.1 313 -2.6 254 68.1 186 0.0 1 0.0 1
307 Nebraska Omaha 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 8 - 10 -8.7      -2.0 241 -6.7 344 73.7 51 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 North Dakota 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.9      -3.2 274 -6.6 343 68.3 175 0.0 1 0.0 1
346 Denver 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -13.1      -5.7 322 -7.4 349 66.7 221 0.0 1 0.0 1
357 St. Thomas 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 24 3 - 15 -19.2      -9.2 352 -10.0 360 64.7 271 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Oral Roberts 2.4 38.9 24.6 16.4 10.0 5.2 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
South Dakota St. 2.7 30.5 24.3 18.7 12.2 7.2 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
South Dakota 2.7 30.4 24.3 18.7 12.4 7.1 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
North Dakota St. 3.9 12.4 15.9 18.5 18.5 13.9 9.2 6.0 3.4 1.6 0.4
Western Illinois 5.8 2.4 4.9 8.2 12.2 15.8 16.8 15.3 12.9 8.4 3.1
UMKC 5.9 2.3 4.6 8.0 11.8 16.1 16.8 15.7 12.7 8.6 3.3
Nebraska Omaha 6.2 1.7 3.6 6.6 10.4 14.6 16.6 16.6 14.9 10.6 4.4
North Dakota 6.6 1.1 2.4 5.0 8.3 12.5 15.9 17.4 17.4 13.9 6.3
Denver 7.6 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.1 7.4 11.1 15.2 19.7 24.6 14.6
St. Thomas 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 6.1 12.0 24.1 52.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Oral Roberts 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.8 7.4 9.7 12.3 14.4 15.2 13.9 10.3 5.0
South Dakota St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.5 8.6 11.1 13.2 14.5 13.5 11.3 7.6 3.2
South Dakota 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.5 6.5 8.9 11.1 13.1 14.1 13.8 11.3 7.4 3.1
North Dakota St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.1 9.1 11.0 12.3 12.2 11.2 9.9 7.2 4.2 2.3 0.7
Western Illinois 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.1 8.9 10.3 11.5 11.9 11.3 9.9 8.1 6.1 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
UMKC 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.2 6.1 8.7 10.4 11.5 12.1 11.4 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.2 7.4 9.9 11.4 12.3 11.7 10.3 8.9 6.8 5.0 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 4.3 6.9 9.4 11.5 12.7 12.0 11.1 9.5 7.2 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Denver 5 - 13 2.1 5.4 9.6 12.3 13.5 13.3 11.9 10.1 7.4 5.7 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 3 - 15 14.1 19.8 19.0 15.8 11.6 7.9 5.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oral Roberts 38.9% 28.4 8.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 30.5% 21.2 7.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 30.4% 21.1 7.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 12.4% 7.6 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 2.4% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
UMKC 2.3% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
North Dakota 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oral Roberts 31.8% 31.2% 0.6% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.5 6.2 8.3 7.0 4.2 2.1 68.2 0.8%
South Dakota St. 25.1% 24.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.8 6.2 5.2 3.6 2.3 74.9 0.6%
South Dakota 24.7% 24.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.0 5.8 5.9 4.2 2.6 75.3 0.5%
North Dakota St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 89.4 0.1%
Western Illinois 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 97.3 0.0%
UMKC 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 97.4 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 98.1 0.0%
North Dakota 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.6 0.0%
Denver 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oral Roberts 31.8% 1.3% 31.2% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 25.1% 1.6% 24.4% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 24.7% 1.4% 24.1% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 10.6% 1.4% 10.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 2.7% 0.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 2.6% 0.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5 0.0 0.0
1st Round 95.9% 1.0 4.1 94.9 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 14.2% 0.1 85.9 14.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0