Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#242
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.1% 5.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 11.5% 11.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 24.8% 25.0% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 37.8% 38.1% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.1% 63.5% 21.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.2% 59.6% 18.2%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 8.3
.500 or above 84.0% 84.5% 40.1%
.500 or above in Conference 72.8% 73.1% 36.3%
Conference Champion 14.2% 14.3% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.6% 10.3%
First Four3.8% 3.8% 4.4%
First Round61.3% 61.7% 19.0%
Second Round43.6% 43.9% 11.5%
Sweet Sixteen23.1% 23.3% 2.2%
Elite Eight11.5% 11.6% 0.5%
Final Four5.4% 5.5% 0.0%
Championship Game2.5% 2.6% 0.0%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 25 - 310 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-59 99%    
  Nov 11, 2022 254   Austin Peay W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 15, 2022 63   Marquette W 80-72 75%    
  Nov 24, 2022 56   West Virginia W 75-71 63%    
  Nov 30, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 04, 2022 90   Minnesota W 75-65 80%    
  Dec 07, 2022 141   Hofstra W 84-69 89%    
  Dec 10, 2022 98   @ Nebraska W 80-75 66%    
  Dec 17, 2022 81   Davidson W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 21, 2022 286   New Orleans W 90-66 98%    
  Dec 29, 2022 351   Florida A&M W 84-52 99%    
  Jan 02, 2023 43   Rutgers W 71-65 67%    
  Jan 05, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 08, 2023 66   Penn St. W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 13, 2023 98   Nebraska W 83-72 81%    
  Jan 16, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 19, 2023 90   @ Minnesota W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 22, 2023 48   Maryland W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 26, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 29, 2023 25   Michigan St. W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 01, 2023 66   Penn St. W 70-62 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 09, 2023 29   Iowa W 80-76 62%    
  Feb 12, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 16, 2023 48   @ Maryland L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 19, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 74-69 64%    
  Feb 25, 2023 13   Indiana W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 02, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 05, 2023 18   Illinois W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.2 3.6 3.0 1.8 0.6 14.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.0 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.6 4.8 6.0 7.4 8.5 9.4 9.8 9.9 9.2 8.3 6.9 5.0 3.3 1.8 0.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 99.1% 1.8    1.7 0.1
18-2 92.0% 3.0    2.5 0.5 0.0
17-3 72.4% 3.6    2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 46.1% 3.2    1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 18.6% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 9.2 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.8% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.3% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.0% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.3 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.9% 99.9% 16.2% 83.7% 3.2 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 8.3% 99.4% 13.5% 85.9% 4.3 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-6 9.2% 97.5% 12.0% 85.5% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.2%
13-7 9.9% 92.4% 10.0% 82.4% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 91.6%
12-8 9.8% 82.1% 8.3% 73.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 80.4%
11-9 9.4% 63.3% 6.0% 57.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 60.9%
10-10 8.5% 40.2% 5.0% 35.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 37.0%
9-11 7.4% 15.7% 4.1% 11.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 12.1%
8-12 6.0% 5.3% 3.0% 2.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7 2.4%
7-13 4.8% 2.7% 2.5% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.7 0.2%
6-14 3.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-16 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 63.1% 9.5% 53.6% 5.8 5.1 6.3 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.6 5.9 5.4 4.6 4.4 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 36.9 59.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 86.1 13.1 0.7