Preseason Rankings
Northwestern
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#85
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#147
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 6.0% 6.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.6% 19.6% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.2% 17.2% 1.9%
Average Seed 8.0 8.0 8.0
.500 or above 50.3% 50.3% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 24.1% 24.1% 3.7%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.5% 21.5% 53.0%
First Four2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
First Round18.3% 18.3% 1.9%
Second Round9.9% 9.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.5% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 23 - 45 - 13
Quad 34 - 29 - 15
Quad 46 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 85-53 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2022 294   Northern Illinois W 78-60 95%    
  Nov 15, 2022 102   @ Georgetown L 75-76 47%    
  Nov 22, 2022 100   Liberty W 69-67 55%    
  Nov 25, 2022 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-67 82%    
  Nov 28, 2022 109   Pittsburgh W 70-64 68%    
  Dec 04, 2022 25   @ Michigan St. L 67-76 22%    
  Dec 11, 2022 285   Prairie View W 82-65 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 91   DePaul W 75-71 62%    
  Dec 20, 2022 247   Illinois-Chicago W 80-66 86%    
  Dec 29, 2022 240   Brown W 77-64 85%    
  Jan 01, 2023 36   Ohio St. L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 04, 2023 18   Illinois L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 08, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 64-76 18%    
  Jan 11, 2023 43   Rutgers L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 15, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 66-77 19%    
  Jan 18, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 72-81 24%    
  Jan 21, 2023 41   Wisconsin L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 24, 2023 98   @ Nebraska L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 28, 2023 90   Minnesota W 71-67 61%    
  Feb 02, 2023 15   Michigan L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 05, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 09, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 12, 2023 24   Purdue L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 15, 2023 13   Indiana L 67-73 33%    
  Feb 19, 2023 29   Iowa L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 23, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 65-76 20%    
  Feb 26, 2023 48   @ Maryland L 67-74 30%    
  Mar 01, 2023 66   Penn St. W 65-64 54%    
  Mar 05, 2023 43   @ Rutgers L 63-70 29%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 3.3 1.0 0.1 10.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 12.5 12th
13th 0.3 1.6 3.6 4.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.6 13th
14th 1.2 3.0 4.3 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 14.5 14th
Total 1.2 3.3 5.9 7.9 9.5 10.6 10.2 9.9 9.1 8.2 6.8 5.4 4.1 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 94.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 79.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 49.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.3% 99.4% 11.6% 87.8% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-6 2.0% 98.6% 10.0% 88.6% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
13-7 3.1% 94.2% 8.5% 85.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 93.6%
12-8 4.1% 82.8% 6.6% 76.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 81.6%
11-9 5.4% 63.5% 4.6% 58.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.0 61.8%
10-10 6.8% 40.4% 4.9% 35.5% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 37.4%
9-11 8.2% 16.2% 3.4% 12.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 13.2%
8-12 9.1% 4.6% 2.5% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 2.2%
7-13 9.9% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7 0.2%
6-14 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.1
5-15 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.5
4-16 9.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.4
3-17 7.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.8
2-18 5.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.9
1-19 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
0-20 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
Total 100% 19.6% 2.9% 16.7% 8.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 80.4 17.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 40.0