Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#15
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.9#217
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
#1 Seed 8.8% 9.1% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 17.6% 18.2% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 34.6% 35.7% 7.7%
Top 6 Seed 49.1% 50.5% 14.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.3% 73.7% 36.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.7% 70.2% 33.0%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 7.3
.500 or above 89.0% 90.1% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.1% 79.2% 48.9%
Conference Champion 17.9% 18.4% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.7% 7.6%
First Four3.3% 3.2% 4.7%
First Round70.8% 72.2% 34.3%
Second Round53.1% 54.4% 20.9%
Sweet Sixteen30.0% 30.8% 9.2%
Elite Eight15.7% 16.2% 3.1%
Final Four8.0% 8.3% 1.5%
Championship Game3.9% 4.0% 0.5%
National Champion1.8% 1.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 9
Quad 35 - 115 - 10
Quad 45 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 11, 2022 226   Eastern Michigan W 84-66 95%    
  Nov 16, 2022 109   Pittsburgh W 73-62 82%    
  Nov 20, 2022 144   Ohio W 80-64 92%    
  Nov 23, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 79-52 99%    
  Nov 29, 2022 20   Virginia W 63-59 62%    
  Dec 04, 2022 3   Kentucky L 72-76 38%    
  Dec 08, 2022 90   @ Minnesota W 73-67 67%    
  Dec 17, 2022 225   Lipscomb W 86-65 95%    
  Dec 21, 2022 2   North Carolina L 74-78 37%    
  Dec 29, 2022 263   Central Michigan W 84-61 97%    
  Jan 01, 2023 48   Maryland W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 04, 2023 66   Penn St. W 70-61 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 12, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 15, 2023 85   Northwestern W 77-66 81%    
  Jan 19, 2023 48   @ Maryland W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 22, 2023 90   Minnesota W 76-64 82%    
  Jan 26, 2023 24   Purdue W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 29, 2023 66   @ Penn St. W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 02, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 05, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 08, 2023 98   Nebraska W 83-71 83%    
  Feb 11, 2023 13   Indiana W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 14, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 25   Michigan St. W 76-71 64%    
  Feb 23, 2023 43   @ Rutgers W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 26, 2023 41   Wisconsin W 73-66 70%    
  Mar 02, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 70-73 42%    
  Mar 05, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 69-73 39%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.7 4.6 3.9 2.4 0.8 17.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.7 4.4 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.0 6.5 7.6 8.9 9.9 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.1 6.4 4.3 2.4 0.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 98.9% 2.4    2.2 0.1
18-2 91.5% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
17-3 72.8% 4.6    3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 45.1% 3.7    1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 20.5% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 12.1 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.4% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.3% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.4% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.1% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.8 1.2 2.5 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.4% 99.8% 14.8% 85.1% 3.8 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 10.0% 99.1% 12.8% 86.3% 4.9 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
13-7 10.4% 95.8% 9.7% 86.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.3%
12-8 9.9% 88.3% 8.1% 80.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 87.3%
11-9 8.9% 73.2% 7.7% 65.5% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 71.0%
10-10 7.6% 50.6% 5.8% 44.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 47.6%
9-11 6.5% 23.1% 4.4% 18.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 19.6%
8-12 5.0% 6.8% 3.2% 3.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 3.8%
7-13 3.9% 3.4% 2.8% 0.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7 0.6%
6-14 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-15 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 1.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.3% 11.6% 60.8% 5.1 8.8 8.8 9.0 8.0 7.6 6.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 3.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 27.7 68.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 92.5 7.5