Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#66
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.4#359
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 6.2% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 10.8% 12.2% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 31.9% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.8% 28.8% 7.3%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 9.1
.500 or above 56.2% 61.0% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 35.6% 38.6% 15.6%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 11.9% 29.4%
First Four3.4% 3.6% 1.9%
First Round27.3% 30.2% 8.2%
Second Round15.9% 17.8% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 7.0% 1.0%
Elite Eight2.5% 2.9% 0.3%
Final Four1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 12
Quad 33 - 110 - 13
Quad 45 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 174   Winthrop W 72-60 87%    
  Nov 10, 2022 297   Loyola Maryland W 71-51 96%    
  Nov 14, 2022 80   Butler W 63-59 65%    
  Nov 17, 2022 96   Furman W 66-63 59%    
  Nov 25, 2022 271   Lafayette W 72-55 93%    
  Nov 29, 2022 65   @ Clemson L 62-65 39%    
  Dec 07, 2022 25   Michigan St. L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 10, 2022 18   @ Illinois L 60-69 23%    
  Dec 18, 2022 290   Canisius W 75-56 94%    
  Dec 22, 2022 221   Quinnipiac W 74-60 87%    
  Dec 29, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 83-52 99%    
  Jan 01, 2023 29   Iowa L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 04, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 61-70 23%    
  Jan 08, 2023 24   Purdue L 63-68 35%    
  Jan 11, 2023 13   Indiana L 62-66 38%    
  Jan 17, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin L 60-66 33%    
  Jan 21, 2023 98   Nebraska W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 24, 2023 43   @ Rutgers L 59-64 34%    
  Jan 29, 2023 15   Michigan L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 01, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 62-70 27%    
  Feb 05, 2023 98   @ Nebraska L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 08, 2023 41   Wisconsin W 63-62 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 48   @ Maryland L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 14, 2023 18   Illinois L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 18, 2023 90   @ Minnesota L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 23, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 61-68 30%    
  Feb 26, 2023 43   Rutgers W 62-61 52%    
  Mar 01, 2023 85   @ Northwestern L 64-65 46%    
  Mar 05, 2023 48   Maryland W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 3.3 0.9 0.0 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.7 3.0 1.0 0.1 10.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.0 13th
14th 0.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 9.3 14th
Total 0.6 1.9 3.6 5.3 7.0 8.4 9.1 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.4 7.5 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 91.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 77.4% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 46.4% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.6% 99.8% 15.3% 84.5% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 2.5% 99.5% 12.4% 87.1% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 3.5% 98.7% 9.8% 88.9% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6%
13-7 4.7% 94.0% 8.8% 85.3% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.5%
12-8 5.8% 82.6% 7.1% 75.5% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 81.3%
11-9 7.5% 64.2% 5.6% 58.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.7 62.0%
10-10 8.4% 38.6% 4.6% 34.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 35.7%
9-11 9.1% 15.7% 4.0% 11.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 12.2%
8-12 9.5% 5.1% 3.0% 2.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.0 2.2%
7-13 9.9% 2.4% 2.3% 0.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7 0.2%
6-14 9.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.0
5-15 8.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.2
4-16 7.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
3-17 5.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.2
2-18 3.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-19 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 28.9% 4.1% 24.8% 7.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 71.1 25.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 70.5 29.5