Preseason Rankings
Seattle
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#173
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.8#36
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#145
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 11.1% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 14.4
.500 or above 55.8% 69.6% 36.3%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 68.3% 44.7%
Conference Champion 9.4% 12.9% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 3.4% 10.6%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round8.0% 10.6% 4.3%
Second Round1.2% 1.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 49 - 314 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 264   @ UC San Diego W 76-74 59%    
  Nov 13, 2022 278   Portland St. W 81-72 79%    
  Nov 19, 2022 154   @ Portland L 74-78 36%    
  Nov 28, 2022 89   @ Washington L 71-81 21%    
  Nov 30, 2022 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 10, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 78-71 71%    
  Dec 15, 2022 204   @ Oregon St. L 74-76 45%    
  Dec 18, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 82-65 92%    
  Dec 22, 2022 76   Utah St. L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 31, 2022 193   California Baptist W 75-71 61%    
  Jan 05, 2023 303   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 07, 2023 248   @ Texas Arlington W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 12, 2023 111   New Mexico St. L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 14, 2023 156   @ Utah Valley L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 19, 2023 245   Tarleton St. W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 177   Southern Utah W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 26, 2023 175   @ Sam Houston St. L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 28, 2023 166   @ Stephen F. Austin L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 01, 2023 147   Abilene Christian W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 111   @ New Mexico St. L 68-75 29%    
  Feb 08, 2023 253   Utah Tech W 67-60 72%    
  Feb 11, 2023 116   Grand Canyon L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 15, 2023 193   @ California Baptist L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 156   Utah Valley W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 24, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 67-74 30%    
  Mar 01, 2023 253   @ Utah Tech W 64-63 54%    
  Mar 03, 2023 248   Texas Arlington W 73-66 70%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.3 9.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.6 0.9 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 1.7 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 13th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.2 5.7 7.6 8.9 9.8 10.1 10.3 9.9 8.5 7.0 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.7% 1.1    1.0 0.0
16-2 91.2% 2.0    1.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 71.9% 2.7    1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.5% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
13-5 14.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 5.7 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 74.3% 52.4% 21.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 46.0%
17-1 1.1% 60.2% 44.1% 16.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 28.8%
16-2 2.2% 38.2% 32.2% 6.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 8.8%
15-3 3.7% 27.2% 25.0% 2.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 2.9%
14-4 5.3% 22.3% 21.8% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.6%
13-5 7.0% 14.8% 14.7% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.0%
12-6 8.5% 11.2% 11.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.6
11-7 9.9% 8.7% 8.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.0
10-8 10.3% 6.6% 6.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.7
9-9 10.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.7
8-10 9.8% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.5
7-11 8.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
6-12 7.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.5
5-13 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-15 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.5% 8.0% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 91.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 7.8 29.1 22.7 19.1 3.5 7.1 7.1 3.5
Lose Out 0.0%