IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.6	#245
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.4	#348
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.8	#286

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#167

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.7	15.3

.500 or above	29.7%	67.5%	26.9%
.500 or above in Conference	40.8%	70.4%	38.5%
Conference Champion	4.0%	12.8%	3.4%
Last Place in Conference	13.3%	3.6%	14.0%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 12
Quad 4	7 - 4	10 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	61	@ Arizona St.	L	56-72	7%
Nov 18, 2022	115	Belmont	L	64-71	26%
Nov 26, 2022	94	@ Wichita St.	L	58-71	14%
Nov 29, 2022	208	Weber St.	W	68-67	53%
Dec 06, 2022	4	@ Baylor	L	54-79	2%
Dec 11, 2022	92	@ Central Florida	L	58-71	15%
Dec 18, 2022	231	@ Air Force	L	58-62	38%
Dec 29, 2022	248	Texas Arlington	W	63-60	60%
Dec 31, 2022	147	@ Abilene Christian	L	63-71	26%
Jan 05, 2023	177	Southern Utah	L	68-69	49%
Jan 07, 2023	175	@ Sam Houston St.	L	58-64	31%
Jan 11, 2023	362	Chicago St.	W	74-53	96%
Jan 14, 2023	147	Abilene Christian	L	66-68	44%
Jan 19, 2023	173	@ Seattle	L	64-70	30%
Jan 21, 2023	193	@ California Baptist	L	62-68	32%
Jan 26, 2023	253	Utah Tech	W	58-54	62%
Jan 28, 2023	116	Grand Canyon	L	61-65	37%
Feb 01, 2023	248	@ Texas Arlington	L	60-63	41%
Feb 04, 2023	303	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	71-63	73%
Feb 09, 2023	177	@ Southern Utah	L	65-71	30%
Feb 11, 2023	253	@ Utah Tech	L	55-57	43%
Feb 15, 2023	166	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	62-69	30%
Feb 18, 2023	175	Sam Houston St.	L	60-61	49%
Feb 23, 2023	156	Utah Valley	L	63-64	46%
Feb 25, 2023	303	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	68-66	55%
Mar 03, 2023	111	New Mexico St.	L	61-65	37%
Projected Record						10 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0		0.1	0.5	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1		4.0	1st
2nd												0.2	1.1	1.9	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			5.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.5	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.0					6.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.4	2.8	1.7	0.3	0.0						6.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.2	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.0							7.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.9	3.6	2.7	0.5	0.0								7.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	3.2	3.5	0.8	0.0									8.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	2.9	3.9	1.2	0.1										8.5	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.5	4.6	1.7	0.1	0.0										9.3	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	2.5	4.4	2.3	0.2												9.8	10th
11th			0.0	0.5	2.5	4.1	2.3	0.4	0.0												9.8	11th
12th		0.1	0.9	2.6	3.6	2.1	0.4	0.0													9.7	12th
13th	0.6	1.7	2.7	2.3	1.0	0.2	0.0														8.6	13th

Total	0.6	1.8	3.6	5.5	7.6	9.2	10.0	10.8	10.1	9.7	8.4	7.0	5.7	4.2	2.7	1.7	0.9	0.4	0.1			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.3%	0.4		0.3	0.0
16-2	87.2%	0.8		0.6	0.1	0.0
15-3	68.1%	1.1		0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	35.3%	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0
13-5	12.9%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.0%	4.0		2.2	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%																							0.1
17-1	0.4%																							0.4
16-2	0.9%																							0.9
15-3	1.7%		0.1%	0.1%		13.0														0.0				1.7
14-4	2.7%		0.1%	0.1%		14.0															0.0			2.7
13-5	4.2%		0.2%	0.2%		13.3													0.0	0.0		0.0		4.2
12-6	5.7%		0.2%	0.2%		14.2														0.0	0.0	0.0		5.7
11-7	7.0%		0.5%	0.5%		15.0													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0
10-8	8.4%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7																0.0	0.0	8.4
9-9	9.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
8-10	10.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
7-11	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
6-12	10.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
5-13	9.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
4-14	7.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
3-15	5.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
2-16	3.6%																							3.6
1-17	1.8%																							1.8
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%