IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.3	#278
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.3	#30
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#288

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#250

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.4%	8.6%	3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.4	15.2

.500 or above	24.2%	49.9%	18.7%
.500 or above in Conference	44.3%	64.8%	39.9%
Conference Champion	4.4%	9.3%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	10.4%	3.4%	11.9%

First Four	1.4%	1.7%	1.4%
First Round	3.7%	7.8%	2.8%
Second Round	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 6	10 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2022	154	@ Portland	L	72-82	18%
Nov 13, 2022	173	@ Seattle	L	72-81	21%
Nov 19, 2022	204	@ Oregon St.	L	71-79	25%
Nov 25, 2022	1	Gonzaga	L	69-97	1%
Dec 03, 2022	231	Air Force	L	67-68	49%
Dec 10, 2022	273	@ Cal Poly	L	67-70	39%
Dec 13, 2022	127	@ Santa Clara	L	73-85	16%
Dec 17, 2022	129	UC Santa Barbara	L	70-76	30%
Dec 22, 2022	193	@ California Baptist	L	70-78	25%
Dec 31, 2022	275	@ Sacramento St.	L	69-72	39%
Jan 05, 2023	185	@ Eastern Washington	L	74-83	24%
Jan 07, 2023	342	@ Idaho	W	79-76	61%
Jan 12, 2023	320	Northern Arizona	W	75-68	70%
Jan 14, 2023	213	Northern Colorado	L	79-80	45%
Jan 19, 2023	208	@ Weber St.	L	73-81	27%
Jan 21, 2023	324	@ Idaho St.	W	70-69	53%
Jan 26, 2023	140	Montana St.	L	72-77	34%
Jan 28, 2023	170	Montana	L	70-73	39%
Feb 02, 2023	342	Idaho	W	82-73	77%
Feb 04, 2023	185	Eastern Washington	L	77-80	41%
Feb 09, 2023	213	@ Northern Colorado	L	76-83	28%
Feb 11, 2023	320	@ Northern Arizona	W	72-71	52%
Feb 16, 2023	324	Idaho St.	W	73-66	71%
Feb 18, 2023	208	Weber St.	L	76-78	45%
Feb 23, 2023	170	@ Montana	L	67-76	23%
Feb 25, 2023	140	@ Montana St.	L	69-80	19%
Feb 27, 2023	275	Sacramento St.	W	72-69	59%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.1		4.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	2.3	1.6	0.5	0.1				6.6	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.0	2.7	3.1	1.4	0.3	0.0					8.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.7	4.0	3.6	1.3	0.1							10.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.4	4.8	3.7	1.0	0.1								12.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.8	3.3	5.4	3.2	0.8	0.0									13.5	6th
7th					0.1	1.4	4.4	5.0	2.6	0.5	0.0										14.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.4	1.9	4.6	4.1	1.7	0.3												13.0	8th
9th		0.1	0.7	2.6	3.4	2.6	0.8	0.1	0.0												10.2	9th
10th	0.3	1.1	2.1	1.7	0.8	0.2	0.0														6.4	10th

Total	0.3	1.2	2.9	4.7	6.3	8.9	10.1	10.5	10.9	10.2	9.6	7.8	6.2	4.4	3.0	1.7	0.9	0.3	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	91.2%	0.8		0.7	0.1
15-3	71.7%	1.3		0.8	0.4	0.1
14-4	37.7%	1.1		0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	14.3%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	2.2%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.4%	4.4		2.5	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		56.6%	53.8%	2.9%	12.2								0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		6.3%
17-1	0.3%		40.4%	39.6%	0.8%	12.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		1.3%
16-2	0.9%		33.8%	33.8%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.6
15-3	1.7%		27.1%	27.1%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.3
14-4	3.0%		19.2%	19.2%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.4
13-5	4.4%		12.1%	12.1%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	3.9
12-6	6.2%		9.8%	9.8%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	5.6
11-7	7.8%		6.3%	6.3%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	7.4
10-8	9.6%		5.1%	5.1%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.1
9-9	10.2%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.9
8-10	10.9%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.7
7-11	10.5%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
6-12	10.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.0
5-13	8.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	8.8
4-14	6.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
3-15	4.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
2-16	2.9%																							2.9
1-17	1.2%																							1.2
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		4.4%	4.4%	0.0%	14.9								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.1	1.9	95.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%